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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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I'm very polite. I think I'm actually the most polite. A lot of people say that about me. A lot of people. They're saying I'm the most polite poster they know.

very polite donald trump
 
Matty
1-4 -2.80u (-$28.84)

YTD 8-8-0 +1.2u $1,011.48

March 31 Plays ($10.30 per unit)

LAA +135 (Detmers/Wells) :greencheck:
WSH +145 (Irvin/Martinez) :redx:
MIA -130 (Falter/Rogers) :redx:
CHW +135 (Flaherty/Fedde) :redx:
TEX -135 (Wicks/Gray) :redx:
STL +155 (Matz/Stone) :redx:
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Matty
I don't love it, but adding:

ARI -200 (Feltner/Pfaadt) :greencheck:
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Three one-run losses. This shit is so maddening. :mad: 3-9 run over the last two days.

2-5 -3.3units (-$33.99)

YTD 10-13-0 -2.1u $977.49
 
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Matty
Pirates sweep 4-game opening road series for 1st time since 1903

:rofl: :banghead:

www.vice.com

Baseball Is Basically a Random Number Generator

Baseball is too random to predict games, and even more so in October, when things get so tense you can puke.
www.vice.com www.vice.com
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Reminds me of this post from the other day.


Even six perfectly optimized bots playing against each other in 500K poker hands have wildly different results. 500K hands isn't enough of a sample size! So WTF is 1K, 5K, 10K sports bets? You could very easily have a great model lose or a shit model win over a whole bunch of seasons and be well within standard deviation of outcomes.

It's all shenanigans.*

*It WAS all shenanigans until Matty Rain cracked the code. GameLivers one and all, BEAR WITNESS IN THIS THREAD !!
 
lol, yes

Every time I start doubting my shit I run simulations in Excel using the rand() formula. Variance is crazy even over several thousand coin flips. Assuming an average edge of about 3% though, we should eventually creep up and start racking up the units.

There's something extra aggravating about the way baseball games unfold. The clumpiness of the scoring. One minute you're up 5-2 and the next you're down 12-5. :robyn:
 
Matty
lol, yes

Every time I start doubting my shit I run simulations in Excel using the rand() formula. Variance is crazy even over several thousand coin flips. Assuming an average edge of about 3% though, we should eventually creep up and start racking up the units.

There's something extra aggravating about the way baseball games unfold. The clumpiness of the scoring. One minute you're up 5-2 and the next you're down 12-5. :robyn:
Click to expand...
My crew had a big 4 game parlay killed last year by like a million runners left on base vs the corniest flukiest run vs not cashing in runners on 2nd and 3rd no outs followed by opponent winning in extra innings with the pity runner starting on 2nd like bro stop with this stupid sport.
 
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