Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

7-0 Jays in the 3rd 👌

 

[Matty]

Wednesday May 22

FULL GAMES
WSH +110
SFG +108
PHI -124
MIL -132
NYY -164
CHC +118

FIRST FIVE
SDP -128
MIL -124
NYY -160
COL +120

Bumperballs

 

[roguejuror]

I'm too late, only COL left to sweat

 

[Matty]

Wednesday May 22

FULL GAMES
WSH +110
SFG +108
PHI -124
MIL -132
NYY -164
CHC +118

FIRST FIVE
SDP -128
MIL -124
NYY -160
COL +120

FULL GAMES
3-3 -0.24u
YTD 161-158 +0.72u

FIRST FIVE
3-1 +1.96u
YTD 65-55-16 -5u

 

[roguejuror]

is today going to be a rest day? hell no

 

[Matty]

We don't do rest days. We want to accumulate a significant sample size as fast as possible.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 161-158 +0.72u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 65-55-16 -5u

Kelly bankroll after day 17 - $153.63
New Kelly bet amount - $4.61

Thursday May 23

FULL GAMES
SFG +150 (fading Paul Skenes )
PHI -190
SDP -110

FIRST FIVE
NYY -135
COL +105

 

[roguejuror]

(fading Paul Skenes

)

oh fuk

 

[Matty]

I've been wondering whether the model would ever spit out a FF play that contradicts the full game play. It almost happened today thanks to Paul Skenes, i.e. Pirates are a borderline FF play.

(If that were to actually happen I would only bet the higher theoretical edge between the two.)

 

[Matty]

You can easily find +160 or better now on SFG.

 

[Tron]

You can easily find +160 or better now on SFG.

World has to be on Paul Skeet Skeet Skenes so I wouldn't be surprised if it lands on +170

 

[Matty]

Yeah I should've waited. But my model has SFG as a +135 so +150 looked like a big fat juicy line this morning.

I gotta get better at this.

 

[Matty]

 

[Tron]

I'll jump on 170 later

 

[Tron]

162 now

 

[mcbaseball10]

Don't fight that skenesy feeling. Embrace it

 

[mcbaseball10]

Sometimes it just feels good to be on the square side.

 

[Matty]

SFG play has decent texture so far.