Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

Gameday on the app is pretty good

 

[Matty]

Ugh.

 

[roguejuror]

Okay we are on

 

[Tron]

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

I love mlb.com

I have the audio package. It’s SO cheap and I like listening to games more than watching them

 

[Matty]

The day is not going great, but luckily we still have one game on the board.

*checks notes*

 

[Tron]

Hader has a 6 ERA this year but he's been very unlucky. need his bad luck to continue against the bottom of the lineup (or pinch hitters)

 

[roguejuror]

I have the audio package. It’s SO cheap and I like listening to games more than watching them

from all the leagues it's the best website, and the tech infrastructure it runs on is very good, the developers behind it are so good that the MLB created a subsidiary for the dev team that works like an independent startup, they get hire to implement and run the infrastructure and streaming tech for others like the NHL, WWE, ESPN and PGA, so the MLB earns from those other leagues as well

 

[Tron]

from all the leagues it's the best website, and the tech infrastructure it runs on is very good, the developers behind it are so good that the MLB created a subsidiary for the dev team that works like an independent startup, they get hire to implement and run the infrastructure and streaming tech for others like the NHL, WWE, ESPN and PGA, so the MLB earns from those other leagues as well

I did not know that

 

[Matty]

3 outs to go, c'mon ChiSox

For the love of Frank Thomas

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 126-122 +2.88u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 38-24-11 +5.81u

Kelly bankroll after Day 3 - $260.77
New Kelly bet amount - $7.82 ($17.82 total bet)

Thursday May 9

FULL GAMES
MIN -124
CIN -124
NYY -130
CHW +145

FIRST FIVE
MIN -130
CIN -130 🟡
SFG -148
NYY -125
CHW +120

This could be a very bad day.

FULL GAMES
2-2 -0.09u
YTD 128-124 +2.79U

FIRST FIVE
2-2-1 -0.53u
YTD 40-26-12 +5.28u

Kelly bankroll after day 4 - $255.92
New Kelly bet amount - $7.68

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 128-124 +2.79U

FIRST FIVE
YTD 40-26-12 +5.28u

Kelly bankroll after day 4 - $255.92
New Kelly bet amount - $7.68

Friday May 10

FULL GAMES
HOU -134
ARI +125
TOR -112
NYM +130

FIRST FIVE
HOU -140
ARI +102
CHW -116

 

[Matty]

Still have 3 games to go through, be back later

 

[Matty]

Adding

FIRST FIVE
LAD -175

That might be it for today. Strong lean on Nats full game and Angels first five, keeping an eye on them.

 

[roguejuror]

I did not know that

It's called MLB Advanced Media

Back around 2017 when Disney was planning to launch a streaming service they hired them to built the infrastructure, but Disney didn't want to just license the tech they wanted to own it. So Disney decided to partner with them instead of hiring them buying their way into the intellectual property, in a series of investments Disney paid a total of $2.58 billion just for the tech that was going to be used for this service. In addition the company that ran the Disney+ service was 33% owned by MLBAM.

Then that first year when Disney+ launched it was a huge hit with over 100 million paying subscribers. Disney went crazy for the streaming business and wanted the MLB out so they could own it wholly. So they paid MLB a billion more to buy them out of that company. A few years later Disney+ tanked and the streaming business got saturated and went down. MLB got out just at the right time. That's been just one of the side businesses from this division.

MLBAM has been huge for MLB.

 

[Matty]

I'm quietly excited about my model. It has unlocked what I couldn't do well before, i.e. beating the closing lines by a decent margin. When chasing steam, I had no idea what to bet until a few mimutes before gametime, which usually limited my edge to just a few cents.

Look at the prices on Houston and Arizona right now. 🥳

 

[Vegas Dave]

I'm quietly excited about my model. It has unlocked what I couldn't do well before, i.e. beating the closing lines by a decent margin. When chasing steam, I had no idea what to bet until a few mimutes before gametime, which usually limited my edge to just a few cents.

Look at the prices on Houston and Arizona right now. 🥳

It's pretty awesome, at some point I'll want to pick your brain on how you prompted ChatGPT to program to pull data!

 

[Matty]

I didn't end up using that code. Instead I manually copy the WAR data to my spreadsheet every morning, takes 5 mins. And if I subscribed to Fangraph I could do it in 2 mins by simply exporting the WAR tables.

But yeah ChatGPT can in theory write you a basic scraper if you give it a sample URL.