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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

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Matty
FULL GAMES
0-5 -6.21u
YTD 116-113 +2.98u

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
0-6 -7.82u
YTD 25-17-10 +4.05u

Kelly bankroll (Day 0.5) $250
Kelly bets are at 3% each ($7.50)

Monday May 6

FULL GAMES
DET +102 :redx:
PIT -162 :greencheck:
KCR -140 :greencheck:
SDP -106 :greencheck:
TBR -165 :greencheck:
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
PHI -220 :greencheck:
PIT -165 :greencheck:
KCR -152 :redx:
OAK +120 :greencheck:
LAD -280 :greencheck:
Click to expand...
FULL GAMES
4-1 +1.88u (+$18.80 base, +$14.10 Kelly)
YTD 120-114 +4.86u

FIRST FIVE
4-1 +1.96u (+$19.60 base, +$14.70 Kelly)
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u

Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36

Going forward I'll be betting x to win one unit on games where I'm not on the full and first five, and one unit to win x on games where I bet both. I think it makes sense.
 
FULL GAMES
YTD 120-114 +4.86u

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u

Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36

Tuesday May 7

FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)

FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
 
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Matty
Going forward I'll be betting x to win one unit on games where I'm not on the full and first five, and one unit to win x on games where I bet both. I think it makes sense.
Click to expand...
I agree with Rogueys earlier post, that it's an illusion.

I understand wanting to mitigate risk/exposure on each game. But really, the First5 and Game are two independent, theoretically +EV bets.

The fact that they are stacked is just as likely to work in your favor as it is to work against you, and assuming both are actually +EV, it's more likely to work in your favor.

Seems you are unfairly punishing picks you also like the First5 in.
 
Yeah, fair. I'm a wuss. I keep reminding myself that the main goal right now is to find out whether the method works. For that to happen, I just need to put in bets. Optimizing the dollars would come after.

But still, yeah. Losing this small amount of money would be inconsequential, so I might as well swing for the fences.

Then again, if this truly works, I'll never have to deposit a dollar ever again. I'll just keep rolling over the initial $400 that I deposited.

I dunno. Let's do it this way today and see how that feels once the baseball unfolds.

I very much apppreciate the feedback by the way. This experiment is evolving thanks to y'all. :cheers:
 
BOOM (the two on the left are mine - I bought the Tim Horton for @mrquincy)
tim horton card for mrquincy
 
Adding for Tuesday May 7

FULL GAMES
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)

FIRST FIVE
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
 
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Adding again

FULL GAMES
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)

FIRST FIVE
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)
 
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FULL GAMES
YTD 120-114 +4.86u

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u

Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36

Tuesday May 7

FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)

FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)

Oh my God.

I think this is too many bets. I almost ran out of cash at TheScore Bet.
 
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