Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[roguejuror]

Shit, they all do. Where have I been.

It's just a marketing tactic, they'll cut them off for you soon enough if you move anything meaningful.

 

[Blitty]

Just checked BMR for first time. Looks like bobbyfk, jjgold, and arch are regulars there.

Good times.

 

[Matty]

Adding

PHI -175

Apr 3
OAK +130
DET +105
TOR +120
SFG +180

0-4 -4.75u (-$48.93)

YTD 13-23 -9.3u $903.32

Currently on a 6-19 run. I've been on worse streaks, in MLB too, but what the fuck. What the fuck is going on Daffy.

Thursday April 4
MIN -145
STL -145

Passing on the Tigers-Mets doubleheader, although Mets are borderline plays for both games.

Fade that ish boys.

 

[Matty]

 

[Tron]

YTD 13-23 -9.3u $903.32
What the fuck is going on Daffy.

I wish I knew.

But my guess is

-Tough one run losses

-first two weeks of MLB is historically treacherous for me. The WAR's your scraping are from last year, right?

Takes time for things to settle in

Had I been playing the first 7-8 games of the season I'd be negative units too

 

[Matty]

No, the WARs are 2024 projections. The plan is to update them 1/4 of the way in (i.e. after 40 games) using rest-of-season data. Rinse and repeat every 40 games.

I'm not gonna change a thing and stick to the plan. I'm fascinated at this point.

 

[MrMonkey]

Everything is losing. I'm numb.

It’s so soooo early in the season. That’s the spirit not losing faith In the work you’ve done!!!

 

[Dingo]

I think the Under bettors are getting destroyed as well,lots of punters bet Unders early in the season thinking the pitchers have the advantage over hitters early on

 

[Matty]

Passing on the Tigers-Mets doubleheader, although Mets are borderline plays for both games.

I woulda lost the first one.

#cantwinboys

 

[Matty]

Adding 🤦‍♂️

CHW +146

 

[Matty]

Everything is losing again

Everything is losing all the time

 

[Tron]

Everything is losing again

Everything is losing all the time

You're good. Sixto Sanchez came in and induced 3 ground balls and a pop fly and his defense managed to record 1 out.

Cards lead

 

[Tron]

Adding 🤦‍♂️

CHW +146

CHW +160 now

 

[Matty]

 

[Matty]

Friday April 5

I'm not betting any of these for now, just announcing what the plays are likely to be tomorrow:

OAK (model says +174)
CHC (model says +134)
COL (model says +138)
ATL (model says -293)
LAA (model says -120)

 

[Matty]

For the love of fucking God, White Sox

Do something

 

[Matty]

Oh my fucking God

 

[Tron]

Do something

White Sox: "oh you want something?"

White Sox: "how bout we give up 8 runs in the bottom of the 7th, home slice?"