Matty Rain's 2024-25 NHL Thread

[Vegas Dave]

Mebbe

 

[Matty]

Mebbe not

 

[Matty]

Adding

Minnesota Wild -1.5 +130

 

[Matty]

YTD 114-128 +4.08u

Friday December 6

Washington Capitals +126
Pittsburgh Penguins +165
Vancouver Canucks -1.5 +112
Dallas Stars -118
Minnesota Wild -1.5 +130

Friendly reminder that these plays are based on GAR (goals above replacement) data that I pull from Evolving Hockey. I don't apply any sort of critical thinking beyond that, i.e. I don't eliminate plays that look bad to me (most do!) I blindly trust the numbers and bet all the games that fit a fixed set of criteria. My ultimate goal is to develop a set-and-forget betting strategy that can be done in a few minutes in the morning. As such, margins are expected to be thin. I don't try to predict the outcome of any one game, and the "model" I use tends to keep riding shit teams that are on losing streaks.

tl;dr you probably shouldn't tail this shit

recap bump

 

[Matty]

YTD 114-128 +4.08u

Friday December 6

Washington Capitals +126
Pittsburgh Penguins +165
Vancouver Canucks -1.5 +112
Dallas Stars -118
Minnesota Wild -1.5 +130

3-2 +1.5u
YTD 117-130 +5.58u

 

[roguejuror]

tl;dr you probably shouldn't tail this shit

I challenge this thought

If we don't have this then we'd be left with numerology

 

[Boner_18]

I went all in on one of these (split my ~100 balance across all cover round robin). Got buried. I'll be back when I inevitably reload.

 

[Matty]

YTD 117-130 +5.58u

Satruday December 7

Utah Utahs +112
Chicago Blackhawks +165
Carolina Hurricanes -175
Ottawa Senators -128
Pittsburgh Penguins +140
Los Angeles Kings -139
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 -102

 

[Boner_18]

I lied. Had another book with ~20.

LFG!!!!!!

 

[Tron]

I won’t tail Matty anymore in NHL. I don’t want to mush. The 2 times I tailed he’s gone a total of 0-5.

 

[Matty]

Utahs win and Hawks are up. We like today's texture so far.

 

[Matty]

Canes fucked us a little bit but Pens just won and Sens and Kings looking good. Just need the Oilers to play true to form.

 

[Matty]

YTD 117-130 +5.58u

Satruday December 7

Utah Utahs +112
Chicago Blackhawks +165
Carolina Hurricanes -175
Ottawa Senators -128
Pittsburgh Penguins +140
Los Angeles Kings -139
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 -102

Not a bad day at the office

5-2 +2.77u
YTD 122-132 +8.35u

Sunday December 8

Seattle Kraken +160
Ottawa Senators -143
Columbus Blue Jackets +158
Utah Utahs +102
Dallas Stars -1.5 +115

 

[Boner_18]

I stand with Matty.

 

[Matty]

How much did you profit yesterday? Probably not much because of the fokkin Canes?

 

[Boner_18]

Bet about 20, paid about 35. I'm getting shit lines b/c you're almost always on the side that moves.

 

[roguejuror]

I stand with Matty.

 

[stevek]

It's awesome if you replace the word alone with with Matty in Godsmack's I Stand Alone