Hooligans Sportsbook

Matty Rain's 2024-25 NHL Thread

  • Start date
  • Replies
    491 Replies •
  • Views 4,746 Views
You develop a ChatGPT prompt and keep it going so it keeps your constraints in memory. (That said, GPT convos are limited to a certain length so you need to restart once in a while.) My initial prompt looks something like this right now:

I bet on hockey and need to compute win probabilities for every NHL game tonight. To do so, use hockey Elo ratings for each team, apply a form correction for the last 10 games played and take injuries into account along with starting goalies. Express the probabilities as a percentage AND as a moneyline in US format, and only give me probabilities for the favored team along with the name of the favored team. Be concise - I don't need a full writeup for every game, just the probabilities and the favored team's name. Do all of tonight's NHL games, which are Blues at Hurricanes, Capitals at Golden Knights, Rangers at Kraken and Predators at Canucks.
 
YTD 81-88 +9.97u

Sunday November 17

Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 -111 :greencheck:
Washington Capitals +116 :greencheck:
Vancouver Canucks -122 :redx:

🤖
ChatGPT Elo Plays
YTD 12-7 +4.92u

St. Louis Blues +250 :redx:
Golden Knights -135 :redx:
Seattle Kraken +160 :redx:
Vancouver Canucks -122 :redx:
2-1 +0.94u
YTD 83-89 +10.91u

🤖
ChatGPT Elo Plays
0-4 -4.57u
YTD 12-11 +0.35u
 
Me neither. I might start a separate thread for it, still curious to see how it does over a full season.

But yeah I should instead edumacate myself about how to compute that winrate myself. Not sure how to account for injuries when the Elo rating applies to the whole team. I suspect that ChatGPT doesn't know either.
 
This early payout stuff is ghey and I like it.
early payout is ghey
 
YTD 83-89 +10.91u

Monday November 18

Columbus Blue Jackets +182 :greencheck:
Edmonton Oilers -263 :redx:
Utah Hockey Club -110 :redx:

🤖
ChatGPT Elo Plays
YTD 12-11 +0.35u

Montreal Canadiens +240 :greencheck:
Boston Bruins -200 :redx:
Colorado Avalanche -182 :greencheck:
Washington Capitals -110 :greencheck:
Detroit Red Wings -143 :redx:
Goddammit Oilers. Ugh.

1-2 -1.91
YTD 84-91 +9u

🤖
ChatGPT Elo Plays
3-2 +0.97u
YTD 15-13 +1.32u