Hooligans Sportsbook

Math question

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Wally, I basically use tennis to make sure I don't have to go back to work FT or touch other money so I put a lot of time into it. Probably more than I should. Plus during a big tournament, there are 70+ matches a day. During a normal week like this one with 5 tournaments going on, maybe 40 or so until people start to get eliminated. It's a lot of bloody work. Especially since everything rests on one person and there's no team to cover their slack if they have a bad day. I know Tomato chases steam with tennis and the best I can say is good luck to him. I have line movement results for every WTA and ATP match for close to 6 years. Movement means shit in this sport 88% or so of the time so even that factor is eliminated to help make it easier.

Part of my whole enthusiasm for getting better is helped by the fact that during the past year a lot of stuff I've worked on for a few years prior has finally started to gel. That's why I used to ask so many questions about how do I figure out when I should up my wager amounts and I read TT religiously. Unfortunately I think I'd understand it all better if I could talk to someone in person that I trust has a clue but I really don't have that option.
 
wal66
15.9 games per unit profit by Muddy's standard
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You are doing better than that by the way I would calculate it.

I don't know if you counted pushes but I wouldn't.

That aside, when I refer to unit size I mean base unit. In your case, I believe that averages around $91, doesn't it?

So you have made 22.3 units in 312 bets.

1 unit every 14 bets.



I myself would be slightly uneasy with that result but given the poor lines you are using, your actual capping is very good.
 
Mudcat
I myself would be slightly uneasy with that result but given the poor lines you are using, your actual capping is very good.
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Say what? :surrender: Assuming that 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll, you're uneasy with doubling your bankroll every 1,400 bets? I don't get it. Lemme maintain that pace and I can retire in a handful of years.

:clueless:
 
Matty
Say what? :surrender: Assuming that 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll, you're uneasy with doubling your bankroll every 1,400 bets? I don't get it. Lemme maintain that pace and I can retire in a handful of years.

:clueless:
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Well sure, if you can maintain the pace, you're great. If only everything was that simple and just because you made 7 units in a hundred bets, it meant you were going to make 7 units every 100 bets.

However in my experience, making 7 units in a hundred bets can very easily be an aberration. I am rusty on my standard deviation theory so I don't have a bunch of math to throw at this right now, but I don't think it is much to hang your hat on. It does not take much of a losing streak to obliterate that.

Now in Wally's case, he has done it for 300 bets. That is a more convincing sample. And he has done it using poor lines. If he was using decent lines he probably would be making a unit every, I dunno, 10 bets or so. I would be thrilled with that and fully prepared to back it with cold hard cash. I am not questioning Wally. Wally is golden.

Stay golden Wallyboy!

But if I myself was making a unit every 14 picks, you would be starting to talk like 54% capping or something like that. That would make me uneasy. It is just my experience. Not saying I would throw in the towel but I have seen situations where I can hit 54% for a couple hundred bets and - BOOM! - one 2-15 streak and you're practically back to square 1. Those streaks can happen.

What can I say? Gambling brings out the uneasiness in me sometimes.
 
Matty
Fo sho. I once went 3-27 in MLB. Wiped out about half my bankroll. Shit happens. I've gone 35-5 too.

Sounds like you're not playing very many games a month?
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The name of the game for me is finding as many angles as possible with a reasonable expectation of 1 or more units every 15 bets (or whatever that translates to in terms of an ROI function. Same theory.)

That number changes month-to-month with the different sports. It increases as I do new research and it decreases as old angles fizzle out.



But sure, if I could find enough angles like that to produce the number of bets that durito plays, I would be on easy street.
 
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