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Math question

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Oksana

Oksana

zig a zig ah
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I saw durito post somewhere yesterday about Wally's awesome progress so far and said because he'd made x units in x plays, that the return was great because of some % reason.

Sorry if this is a silly question but can someone tell me what benchmark I use to figure out if I'm doing ok or shitty? Someone asked me in my tennis thread and I don't have a clue. Thanks :)
 
I think I remember seeing the comment

I think it had to do with his ROI. return on investment.

I think Wally is hitting 56-58% on on mostly -110 lines. although he had two losses on some bigger +200ish hockey futures the other day.

with tennis the huge moneylines, make it difficult to track what is a good %

if you are hitting 90% for instance on an avg of -950 lines you aren't doing so well. (crazylou?)

if you are hitting 25% on +800 lines you'd prob get collared

generally speaking 52.4% is the benchmark for breaking even on -110

thats why reduced juice and dime or even nickel juice on bases or hoops or football is great.



I miss matchbook
 
Yeah I was thinking it was ROI but the way I read it, I was wondering if there was some blanket gambling standard to hold it up against.

Since I don't bet huge ML's and normally lay little to any chalk, what should I go with? Or is tennis just one of those wacky sports that because the line varies so much, there really isn't a decent benchmark at all?

Thanks for the help by the way :)
 
Oksana
Yeah I was thinking it was ROI but the way I read it, I was wondering if there was some blanket gambling standard to hold it up against.

Since I don't bet huge ML's and normally lay little to any chalk, what should I go with? Or is tennis just one of those wacky sports that because the line varies so much, there really isn't a decent benchmark at all?

Thanks for the help by the way :)
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Yeah i'm not a math guy.

but I do know that if you have all your bets from a decent chunk of tiime back. (at least a year) you can calculate what your avg ml is. and from that you can determine your break even % going forward if you basically stay at that same ml avg

again I think the 52.4% for -110 lines, but maybe its for no vig?

but anywho lets say its for -110

if your moneyline avg bet over like 3,000 wagers came out to like -105 then you wouldn't need to hit that high. If the avg ml you typically bet turns out to be like -130 then you might need to hit like 54%

its early for me, so i'm not sure if i'm explaining that right. and I'm not actually go do any example calculations..

but i'm sure the math whiz's can give you a little table that shows the break even %
 
I have a somewhat simplistic way of looking at things. I don't know if this helps or not but here it is.

Given my standard bet (unit) size, I look at how many bets it is taking me on average to make a unit of profit.

If I am averaging a unit of profit for every 10 bets or less, I am very happy. Given the old-timey -110 model, that would mean hitting ~57% of wagers (or more). Given a more realistic model based on the sort of lines I use, it is more in the 54-55% range.

It doesn't matter if I am betting pointspreads or huge favorites or huge dogs. I just want to know how many bets it is taking me on average to make a unit of profit.


I can live with it being a bit above 10 but as it approaches 15, more and more questions arise in my mind about if I am just seeing an temporary aberration rather than a solid trend. I have to consider sample size.
 
Mudcat
I have a somewhat simplistic way of looking at things. I don't know if this helps or not but here it is.

Given my standard bet (unit) size, I look at how many bets it is taking me on average to make a unit of profit.

If I am averaging a unit of profit for every 10 bets or less, I am very happy. Given the old-timey -110 model, that would mean hitting ~57% of wagers (or more). Given a more realistic model based on the sort of lines I use, it is more in the 54-55% range.

It doesn't matter if I am betting pointspreads or huge favorites or huge dogs. I just want to know how many bets it is taking me on average to make a unit of profit.


I can live with it being a bit above 10 but as it approaches 15, more and more questions arise in my mind about if I am just seeing an temporary aberration rather than a solid trend. I have to consider sample size.
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Not a bad way to go about it IMO. When I used to bet full-throttle I would evaluate my performance in blocks of 500 bets, expecting at least 10 units of profit for that block. I missed the target a handful of times over 6,000 bets.
 
And thank you Muddy as well. That's kind of what I was doing albeit just by glancing at my numbers every once in awhile.

While a part of me agrees with Wally that as long as I'm up, then that's all that matters, the amount of time I put into these bets wouldn't be worth it to me if I were only up say 10 units after 4 months. Too many matches to look at each day for what would work out to be a $500 profit for me each month.
 
Oxy, I agree it's not worth it if this was the only source of income but if it's just a hobbies or some side money then it's fairly decent.

After reading how everyone compares stuff I am at

6% by Durito's standard
15.9 games per unit profit by Muddy's standard
+20 units in 300 games 3/5's a 500 block by Matty's standard

So I am above average, below average on pace to be above average by the 3 examples given.

In the beginning this was some serious work put into it on a daily basis. As I have evolved my system/program over the course of this it takes less time now. Well at least hockey and baseball have evolved. basketball and football will still be time intensive.
 
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