Implied Probability

[rito]

that's how it usually is in the evening.

don't worry, nobody's having a good time.

i haven't left my apartment in days.

 

[MrX]

Durito's here!

Are you having a good time?

 

[reno cool]

Jello's in the next thread. He can't be having any fun.

 

[MrX]

Nope, he can't.

 

[rito]

Durito's here!

Are you having a good time?

i'm "working" but yea i guess i'm having an ok time

 

[roguejuror]

oyyyt

 

[reno cool]

looks like Phil is still around

 

[Polaroid]

Wal, I didn't forget. I can't find what I did before and I need to rewrite it. It won't tell you how to beat your book but it should be simple enough for you to know how to work out implied probability and actually understand why you should want to know how it works.

 

[Tomato]

CALCULATING ODDS PROBABILITY

IF Odds>0, then P=100/(100+odds)
ex: +110
P=100/(100+110) = 100/210 = .47519

IF Odds<0, then P=-odds/(100-odds)
ex: -121
P=-(-121)/[100-(-121)] = 121/221 = .53483

CALCULATING EXPECTED VALUE

probability of event/combined odds probability = EV
ex: EV = .47619/(.47619+.54751) = .47619/1.0237 = .46516
ex: EV = .54751/(.47619+.54751) = .54751/1.0237 = .53483

CONVERTING TO ODDS (unnecessary)

IF EV<0.5
Odds = [(1/EV)-1]*100
ex: EV (.46516) = [(1/.46517)-1]*100 = [2.149774 -1]*100 = 1.149774 *100 = +114.9774

IF EV>0.5
Odds = -100*EV/(1-EV)
ex: EV (.53483) = -100*.53483/(1-.53483) = -53.483/.46516 = -114.9774

CALCULATING EDGE (EXPECTED RETURN)

[(Implied Probability (Pinnacle) / Other book's probability ) - 1 ] * 100 = Expected Return

EXAMPLE: Patriots-Vikings 2nd half

Pinnacle: Patriots -3 +110/Vikings +3 -121
Bodog: Patriots -3 -115/Vikings +3 -105

Pinnacle probability:
Patriots: 100/(100+110)=.47619
Vikings: -(-121)/[100-(-121)]=.54751

Pinnacle EV:
Patriots: .47619/(.47619+.54751) = .46516
Vikings: .54751/(.54751+.47619) = .53483

Bodog probability:
Patriots: -(-115)/[100-(-115)] = .534883
Vikings: -(-105)/[100-(-105)] = .512195

Patriots EDGE = [(.47619/.534883)-1]*100 = -13.034%
Vikings EDGE = [(.53483/.512195)-1]*100 = 4.4201%

 

[l7ustin]

thanks tomato, awesome.
\\\

where do you find a site to track movement on 2h lines??




still interested to hear the answer to freefalls question regarding betting amounts.

 

[wal66]

Thank you Tomato. I am dog sick right now and not thinking clearly cause of the cold medicine but once my head clears I will look this over. Sick but at work SUCKS!

 

[l7ustin]

i have seen a few sure bets while practicing your implied probability and ROI not large edges but like 1-2% here and there. even if u were to lock up and bet 1000 on each side your only looking at like a 10 dollar profit, so i dont see that as being highly profitable enough to be a pro but i suppose if you could trust both of the two books its free money, would you pros say that you spend time scalping like this for such a small percentage profit often or not much at all??

thanks,
dustin

 

[Tomato]

i have seen a few sure bets while practicing your implied probability and ROI not large edges but like 1-2% here and there. even if u were to lock up and bet 1000 on each side your only looking at like a 10 dollar profit, so i dont see that as being highly profitable enough to be a pro but i suppose if you could trust both of the two books its free money, would you pros say that you spend time scalping like this for such a small percentage profit often or not much at all??

thanks,
dustin

You only are supposed to bet one side of the scalp.