Hooligans Sportsbook

Implied Probability

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MrX
Alright, good start.



Mr.X I get it. I have heard you guys talk about bad lines in the past and never really knew what you were talking about. To me a bad line was Team Y -3 and I had capped them at -10. Now I get what you guys are looking for and talking about now thanks to Durito's explanation.

I would liken it to Walmart setting the price market. If you find the same product offered at another store for less you grab it even if you don't need it cause it's a steal.
 
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I've got so many important things to do like upload videos of Yolandi Visser's naked butt, so I can't get to this right now, but I still mean to help you out a little bit here.

Hopefully someone else will beat me to it.
 
So am I not connecting the dots here?

Implied Probability:

I calculated what the implied probability is but what is it implying?

How do I take the probability and turn it into something viable?

you lied to us wal. You don't understand what durito posted earlier. We are ASSUMING that the pinnacle line is the RIGHT OUTCOME for the game. You then compare that one with the slower books, in your case rebate wager and calculate your edge.

If that made sense to you or duritos earlier post, then do this for the first game you posted in the first post.

Here is your example re posted.
RebateWager
Florida +120  Implied Probability 43.58%
Toronto -140  Implied Probability 56.42%

Pinnacle
Florida +135  Implied Probability 41.76%
Toronto -146  Implied Probability 58.24%
 
So am I not connecting the dots here?

Implied Probability:

I calculated what the implied probability is but what is it implying?

How do I take the probability and turn it into something viable?

Implied probability is the chance of the team winning or covering the spread at the given spread, so if the implied probability is 51% from pinnacle for team A and rebate wager has a line of -100 for team A,

then if you bet $100 on team A

If they win you get $100+$100 and if they lose you get $0

so if they win 51% of the time you will get $200 51% of the time and $0 49% of the time, so $200*.51 + 0 * .49 = $102. So since $102 is greater than the $100 it means that you expect to earn $2 on that bet in the long run.

but if they only win 49% you would expect to lose $2 in the long run.
 
FreeFall,

If I like the dog then I like Pinnacle and the +135 based on price but based on Probability I like RebateWager because I have a 43.58% chance of winning.

So I do understand Durito’s explanation based on line but Probability contradicts it. Or I don’t get it.


Actually I might be confusing myself but I'm not giving up.
 
Soccer Match

Pinnacle

Atlas +416 Implied Probability 18.91%
Pumas -137 Implied Probability 56.57%
Draw +298 Implied Probability 24.52%

RebateWager

Atlas +325 Implied Probability 21.49%
Pumas -130 Implied Probability 51.64%
Draw +240 Implied Probability 26.87%

Ok Pumas has the best Probability at 56.57%
RebateWager has a better line on that Probability at -130

I played Pumas at RebateWager since the line was off compared to the Pinnacle line.
I dont know if I did good or bad but I am fairly certain that I have only figured out
Enough to further get myself in more trouble at this point.

$130 to win $100