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Do we like the Twins tommorow @ +105 vs Ubaldo Jimenez?

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I know I'm a conspiracy theorist and all that shit but COL just looks like the candy lock of the century. How can you not take Ubaldo @ -105 right? His WHIP is like 0.40 and he's -105!!!!!111111111


TWINS +105 is on my radar.

Any thoughts my fellow gamelivers?
 
My system is spitting out Minnesota as a definite play. Nothing ambiguous about it; it is showing up as about as strong a play as I ever see. But I have made so much money this year betting Jimenez just based on judgement. I don't know what I will do. I'll have to take a closer look in the morning.

I really want to play Jimenez again but "no play" is probably the sensible thing.
 
In 2010 Jimenez is sporting a xFIP just about exactly the same as his 2009 level when he went 15-12 with a ~3.50 ERA. His BABIP is around 65 points lower than 2009 and his HR/FB is 4% which is a lot less than the 11-12% MLB average. In other words, he is having a very good season and he is a very good pitcher but the figures he is producing are a product of a good heap of positive variance (or luck).
 
Polaroid
In 2010 Jimenez is sporting a xFIP just about exactly the same as his 2009 level when he went 15-12 with a ~3.50 ERA. His BABIP is around 65 points lower than 2009 and his HR/FB is 4% which is a lot less than the 11-12% MLB average. In other words, he is having a very good season and he is a very good pitcher but the figures he is producing are a product of a good heap of positive variance (or luck).
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I would be very wary of comparing his performance to past years as he is a young pitcher who is reaching the prime of his career and has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the league. Each of the last three years, we have seen gradual improvement in his numbers. While he may be overperforming slightly this season, I wouldn't expect him to return to last year's levels.
 
MonkeyF0cker
I would be very wary of comparing his performance to past years as he is a young pitcher who is reaching the prime of his career and has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the league. Each of the last three years, we have seen gradual improvement in his numbers. While he may be overperforming slightly this season, I wouldn't expect him to return to last year's levels.
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I purposefully chose two statistics which are down to luck rather than ability. League average BABIP is ~.300 and HR/FB averages out at ~11-12% (in fact Roy Halladay's career figures are .299 and 10.1% respectively) and any variation (and especially the size of variations that Jiminez is seeing) is largely down to good luck. So, although the 1.16 ERA looks "good", he isn't statistically pitching any better than 2009 although he's still a really, really good pitcher.
 
Polaroid
I purposefully chose two statistics which are down to luck rather than ability. League average BABIP is ~.300 and HR/FB averages out at ~11-12% (in fact Roy Halladay's career figures are .299 and 10.1% respectively) and any variation (and especially the size of variations that Jiminez is seeing) is largely down to good luck. So, although the 1.16 ERA looks "good", he isn't statistically pitching any better than 2009 although he's still a really, really good pitcher.
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It could also be attributed to a pitcher's ability to get ahead in the count consistently and force batters to swing defensively. I'm not a big subscriber to the luck factor that many sabermetricians tend to believe. There is no metric for "lucky" hits is there?
 
MonkeyF0cker
It could also be attributed to a pitcher's ability to get ahead in the count consistently and force batters to swing defensively. I'm not a big subscriber to the luck factor that many sabermetricians tend to believe.
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It could be, I'm sure. You could rigorously examine how one pitcher for one team tries to get batters to swing defensively by watching hours of tape or you could just look at the stats which, assuming that they are accurate, will tell you a much better story. Livan Hernandez was a Cy Young candidate last month (despite horrific statistical figures). Let's see where he ends up by the end of the season.

MonkeyF0cker
There is no metric for "lucky" hits is there?
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No. Lucky hits are understood in the stats - anything over/under the perceived average is attributed to good/bad luck or good/bad variance.
 
If a "lucky" hit is not counted toward the pitcher, how can a "lucky" fielded ball be counted against them? There are ways through statistics to tell how effective a pitcher is in getting ahead in the count and their success rate when they do. By the way, variance is not the equivalent of luck. You also can't simply look at past year's stats as a mean. There are certain year to year degradation or development factors, injuries, coaching changes, league considerations, etc. that have to be accounted for. How do you account for a player like Josh Hamilton last year? You certainly can't use his past seasons' stats as a mean to draw from. There are a lot of holes in sabermetrics from my perspective.
 
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On MINN +108 (thank you Bodog) and OVER 6.5 (-110)

Some good dialogue in this thread. Nice work guys.

FWIW, I very much believe that "luck" coupled with great pitching have gotten Jimenez's 2010 numbers to where they are right now.

Also, I think Polaroid was using Livan's numbers as a way of showing how "luck" works it's ways on numbers.
 
MonkeyF0cker
If a "lucky" hit is not counted toward the pitcher, how can a "lucky" fielded ball be counted against them? There are ways through statistics to tell how effective a pitcher is in getting ahead in the count and their success rate when they do. By the way, variance is not the equivalent of luck. You also can't simply look at past year's stats as a mean. There are certain year to year degradation or development factors, injuries, coaching changes, league considerations, etc. that have to be accounted for. How do you account for a player like Josh Hamilton last year? You certainly can't use his past seasons' stats as a mean to draw from. There are a lot of holes in sabermetrics from my perspective.
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The only past stat I drew from (to make a point) was his xFIP from last year which is pretty much identical to this year where, as this years stats suggest, he has been fortunate with his HR/FB ratio as well as his BABIP which are pretty much (or specifically variances from the mean) down to luck. And with regard to the FIP (or better still the xFIP) it is by design independent of fielding, it purely measures the variables by which a pitcher is responsible for.
 
MonkeyF0cker
Livan Hernandez is quite a different story. You can't seriously put him in the same category as a 26 year old who has done nothing but improve.
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I gave you Livan Hernandez as an example as someone who has really bad stats but a good record to prove that someone might have a really good record and might not be as good as those stats suggest, Age is not a factor at all, it is the disparity of the stats.
 
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