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Do we like the Twins tommorow @ +105 vs Ubaldo Jimenez?

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Polaroid
The only past stat I drew from (to make a point) was his xFIP from last year which is pretty much identical to this year where, as this years stats suggest, he has been fortunate with his HR/FB ratio as well as his BABIP which are pretty much (or specifically variances from the mean) down to luck. And with regard to the FIP (or better still the xFIP) it is by design independent of fielding, it purely measures the variables by which a pitcher is responsible for.
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You also compared his BAbip to 2009. He is also a ground ball pitcher and is far above the league average for ground ball percentage. FIP scores are heavily dependent on HR's. Yes, he's surely not going to continue with his HR%. However, throughout his career, he has been well below the league average.
 
Polaroid
I gave you Livan Hernandez as an example as someone who has really bad stats but a good record to prove that someone might have a really good record and might not be as good as those stats suggest, Age is not a factor at all, it is the disparity of the stats.
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I guess you don't understand what I'm getting at. If the player continues to improve, how can you continue to use the same mean?
 
MonkeyF0cker
You also compared his BAbip to 2009. He is also a ground ball pitcher and is far above the league average for ground ball percentage. FIP scores are heavily dependent on HR's. Yes, he's surely not going to continue with his HR%. However, throughout his career, he has been well below the league average.
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I used his BABIP in 2009 purely as an example, it being the most recent statistic. His 2010 BABIP is .232 compared to a career BABIP of .282 (which is probably within enough standard deviations to make it irrelevant although I have neither the time nor energy to check).
 
MonkeyF0cker
I guess you don't understand what I'm getting at. If the player continues to improve, how can you continue to use the same mean?
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I know exactly what you're getting at but you can't mistake the luck factors which make up a pitchers stats for pitching efficiency. But if you want to make a wager that Jimenez's ERA for the rest of the season will be below what it is currently then I'm all ears. And it you want to make it a bet for the rest of his career then I'll take out a bank loan (I'll take the over, by the way).
 
Polaroid
I know exactly what you're getting at but you can't mistake the luck factors which make up a pitchers stats for pitching efficiency. But if you want to make a wager that Jimenez's ERA for the rest of the season will be below what it is currently then I'm all ears. And it you want to make it a bet for the rest of his career then I'll take out a bank loan (I'll take the over, by the way).
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The only thing that is effecting his "luck" is the number of HR's allowed thus far. Certainly, he won't continue on that pace. I'm not denying that, but to me, that is not necessarily lucky especially against a ground ball pitcher. My whole point was that comparing last year's statistics is not an effective practice. If you'd like to wager that his ERA this season will be higher than or equal to last year, then I'm the one that is all ears.
 
reno cool
Muddy, I don't know how you do it, with your system and brain canceling each other out all the time.
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I track such things on a spreadsheet and there is no doubt that my system is much smarter than my brain. I have almost gotten to the point of removing my brain from the process completely but not quite. If Minnesota wins today, it will be another big step in the direction of STOP THINKING.
 
Polaroid
I know exactly what you're getting at but you can't mistake the luck factors which make up a pitchers stats for pitching efficiency. But if you want to make a wager that Jimenez's ERA for the rest of the season will be below what it is currently then I'm all ears. And it you want to make it a bet for the rest of his career then I'll take out a bank loan (I'll take the over, by the way).
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I want the over also. I just called the plasma bank to lock in some appointments.
 
MonkeyF0cker
The only thing that is effecting his "luck" is the number of HR's allowed thus far. Certainly, he won't continue on that pace. I'm not denying that, but to me, that is not necessarily lucky especially against a ground ball pitcher. My whole point was that comparing last year's statistics is not an effective practice. If you'd like to wager that his ERA this season will be higher than or equal to last year, then I'm the one that is all ears.
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The HR/FB ratio being down to luck has nothing to do with being a ground ball pitcher - it's not the amount of home runs allowed, it's the ratio of home runs to flyballs. If the ratio is 10% then 1 in 10 of all flyballs will end up being home runs - currently only 1 in 25 of Ubaldos flyballs are leaving the park and this simply won't continue. Similarly with his BABIP - it is a random statistic which I presume is normally distributed and should revert closer to the MLB mean of .300.

As to his ERA for the rest of this season, the best estimate is that it will equal his current xFIP which was 3.61 going into today's game (and probably increased after today's outing). The ZiPS model predicts a 3.74 ERA for the rest of the season to give him a season end record of 22-7 with a 2.64 ERA.
 
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