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Bitcoin-based online gambling

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That's fine if it happens, but I think it goes way higher before it crashes. I don't think it's unreasonable to think it reaches $5k/BTC (which would be a mere $35 billion market cap) before it drops down to 15 bucks.

It's just too convenient for illicit activities and tax-sheltering purposes.

I was wary at first because I did not know about offline wallets - my BTCs sat at my exchange, which seemed awfully not secure.
 
Matty
That's fine if it happens, but I think it goes way higher before it crashes. I don't think it's unreasonable to think it reaches $5k/BTC (which would be a mere $35 billion market cap) before it drops down to 15 bucks.

It's just too convenient for illicit activities and tax-sheltering purposes.

I was wary at first because I did not know about offline wallets - my BTCs sat at my exchange, which seemed awfully not secure.
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I'd put the odds of it hitting $5k/BTC at about 0.000000000000000000000001% in the next 10 years (if it survives that long).
 
Matty
From that link:

Estimate Strategy
Extrapolating bitcoin difficulty or price is pure voodoo. It is much easier to predict the relationship of the two parameters in form of the Mining Factor. The Mining Factor 100 is the value in USD of the bitcoins you can generate if you let a 100MHash/s miner run for 24 hours. If the Mining Factor 100 rises above $2 or so everybody buys mining equipment and thus increases difficulty. If it falls people will stop mining eventually. The estimate starts with the current Mining Factor and decreases it exponentially such that the decrease accounts for the factor decline per year. Please note that a profit/loss by holding the coins is not accounted for in this estimate.

Things to consider that might eat into your profit:
The values above are only a snapshot. The network and markets are moving quickly. Check out these diagrams to get a feeling for it.Looks like if your mining operation is not profitable now, it probably will not be in the future.

With rising bitcoin exchange rates it might be more profitable to buy bitcoins than to mine. There are spreadsheets available in this thread or this one (with some FPGA data) for a more custom calculation.Bitcoin exchanges: MtGox, Tradehill, CryptoXchange.
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Matty your above calculations are working on a hashrate of 100MH/s.

Re-calculate the figures using a hashrate of 60000MH's (60GH/s) and tell me it doesnt add up.

Why are these that retailed for $1200 a couple of months back now going for 8k+ on ebay if the numbers dont add up?
 
xpansive
Matty your above calculations are working on a hashrate of 100MH/s.

Re-calculate the figures using a hashrate of 60000MH's (60GH/s) and tell me it doesnt add up.

Why are these that retailed for $1200 a couple of months back now going for 8k+ on ebay if the numbers dont add up?
Click to expand...

On the eBay links I listed the price includes a wait list spot, from months ago.

So you receive the machine in a couple months instead of years. That's why you pay the premium.
 
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