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illmatick
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illmatick
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Fok these Bellator lines, Kato- too sharp
Here' s my semi-worthless write-up
In a match-ups between two seasoned strikers, French mixed martial artist Karl Amoussou’s will look to utilize his hand speed and athleticism to negate Chris Lozano’s superior counter punching ability.
My opinion on the betting line for this fight is that the opener on Lozano at -130 was for the most part accurately priced, however the action since then has created just enough value to consider a play at Pinnacle on Amoussou as a +158 dog.
Along with possessing the quicker hands and overall movement, Amoussou throws the more advanced combinations and utilizes a much more dangerous kicking game, which consists of a lead leg kick, left head kick and powerful right kick to the body. He also fights well backing up where he shortens his right hand to perfection on his counters
Lozano, meanwhile, is the more advanced counter puncher, constantly looking to time his counter straight and overhand right, the former being what he used to briefly stagger Douglas Lima with in the first round.
Amoussou’s more flashy striking style, which whether is landing cleanly or not, is more than capable off fooling Bellator’s infamously incompetent judges if this goes to a decision. At +158, I like his chance of knocking Chris out is the first, or stealing a somewhat controversial decision on the scorecards.
Here' s my semi-worthless write-up
In a match-ups between two seasoned strikers, French mixed martial artist Karl Amoussou’s will look to utilize his hand speed and athleticism to negate Chris Lozano’s superior counter punching ability.
My opinion on the betting line for this fight is that the opener on Lozano at -130 was for the most part accurately priced, however the action since then has created just enough value to consider a play at Pinnacle on Amoussou as a +158 dog.
Along with possessing the quicker hands and overall movement, Amoussou throws the more advanced combinations and utilizes a much more dangerous kicking game, which consists of a lead leg kick, left head kick and powerful right kick to the body. He also fights well backing up where he shortens his right hand to perfection on his counters
Lozano, meanwhile, is the more advanced counter puncher, constantly looking to time his counter straight and overhand right, the former being what he used to briefly stagger Douglas Lima with in the first round.
Amoussou’s more flashy striking style, which whether is landing cleanly or not, is more than capable off fooling Bellator’s infamously incompetent judges if this goes to a decision. At +158, I like his chance of knocking Chris out is the first, or stealing a somewhat controversial decision on the scorecards.
illmatick
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Thanks fellas.
Sorry, I wasn't around to post my write-up on friday but ended up 2-0 with Askren -210 and Mike Richman +385
Though the champion opened at -400, the early sports picks have dropped Lima a full 25 cents down to +275. The movement after the weigh-ins today should give us a better indication of where the MMA betting line ends up, which in my opinion should peak right around +255.
Ben Askrens latest challenger, Jay Heroin, was recently able to deliver the first blemish on the champions record. Heroin, who closed as a +400 dog, lost a close split decision by out striking Aksren early while showing the better tank late in the fight.
Lima enters this fight having run through Steve Carl, Chris Lozano, and most recently Ben Saunders in last seasons welterweight tournament. In his last two matches against Saunders and Lozano, who were both knocked out inside of two rounds, he proved to be under priced at close to -110. Now, betting odds list him as nearly a +300 dog, and he faces a champion whose recent performance as a -400 favorite suggests hes already being massively inflated and overvalued by the MMA odds makers.
Although Lima has shown a strong triangle and armbar off his back, I just cant see him locking anything up against Askrens top control, which leaves needing a knockout within the 25 minutes of action. The openings are certainly there from Askren, as hes been caught with big shots multiple times on the way in, however his recovery time and ability to scramble into safety has yet to fail him. At current odds I would avoid a play unless a drastic shift is made after the weigh-ins. I personally wouldnt touch Askren at anything higher than -280, and Lima at anything lower that +335.
Mike Richman vs. Chris Horodecki
Featherweight Chris Horodecki will be matched with the quick hands of Mike Richman on the prelim portion of the under card, which can be viewed at Bellator and Spike.com.
The original opening line for this fight was priced accurately enough for me to avoid altogether, however Pinnacle is offering of +385 on Richman creates a curious case of questionable value.
Richmans below average level of opposition and largely inferior training camp are just two reasons Id normally avoid a fight like this. However from the limited footage out there I was impressed by how instinctual he appeared in the pocket and how quick his hands are from the outside, particularly how fast he gets inside with his straight left. Aside form his straight left, he was also able to repeatedly stagger Morgan Sickinger with a deceptive right head kick.
Chriss strength and active combinations should ultimately decide this fight, but at +385 Im willing to take a shot on the quick hands and sharp boxing of the still unproven newcomer.
added plays on
Jung +270
Alexander Gustafsson -220
Sorry, I wasn't around to post my write-up on friday but ended up 2-0 with Askren -210 and Mike Richman +385
Though the champion opened at -400, the early sports picks have dropped Lima a full 25 cents down to +275. The movement after the weigh-ins today should give us a better indication of where the MMA betting line ends up, which in my opinion should peak right around +255.
Ben Askrens latest challenger, Jay Heroin, was recently able to deliver the first blemish on the champions record. Heroin, who closed as a +400 dog, lost a close split decision by out striking Aksren early while showing the better tank late in the fight.
Lima enters this fight having run through Steve Carl, Chris Lozano, and most recently Ben Saunders in last seasons welterweight tournament. In his last two matches against Saunders and Lozano, who were both knocked out inside of two rounds, he proved to be under priced at close to -110. Now, betting odds list him as nearly a +300 dog, and he faces a champion whose recent performance as a -400 favorite suggests hes already being massively inflated and overvalued by the MMA odds makers.
Although Lima has shown a strong triangle and armbar off his back, I just cant see him locking anything up against Askrens top control, which leaves needing a knockout within the 25 minutes of action. The openings are certainly there from Askren, as hes been caught with big shots multiple times on the way in, however his recovery time and ability to scramble into safety has yet to fail him. At current odds I would avoid a play unless a drastic shift is made after the weigh-ins. I personally wouldnt touch Askren at anything higher than -280, and Lima at anything lower that +335.
Mike Richman vs. Chris Horodecki
Featherweight Chris Horodecki will be matched with the quick hands of Mike Richman on the prelim portion of the under card, which can be viewed at Bellator and Spike.com.
The original opening line for this fight was priced accurately enough for me to avoid altogether, however Pinnacle is offering of +385 on Richman creates a curious case of questionable value.
Richmans below average level of opposition and largely inferior training camp are just two reasons Id normally avoid a fight like this. However from the limited footage out there I was impressed by how instinctual he appeared in the pocket and how quick his hands are from the outside, particularly how fast he gets inside with his straight left. Aside form his straight left, he was also able to repeatedly stagger Morgan Sickinger with a deceptive right head kick.
Chriss strength and active combinations should ultimately decide this fight, but at +385 Im willing to take a shot on the quick hands and sharp boxing of the still unproven newcomer.
added plays on
Jung +270
Alexander Gustafsson -220
illmatick
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Ridiculously shitty opener on Siyar Bahadurzada, not sure how Joey keeps his job as head linemaker.
I missed the +270 but hit +160-- still marginally like him at +130 or better.
Also added
Demetrious Johnson -140
I missed the +270 but hit +160-- still marginally like him at +130 or better.
Also added
Demetrious Johnson -140
roguejuror
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who is Joey?
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ill who is that guy ghost_kid? Every time I mention what a shitty job joey does or anything about the books he's right there to defend them. Does he work directly for the books or just a huge wannabe who likes to think he will be a lines maker one day?
illmatick
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Honestly not sure. I haven't seen too many of his posts. I'll keep an eye on him.