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Baseball Picks 2011

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Enogsiwon
Total Bases Prop (Giants @ Dodgers)

I like Brandon Belt to have more total bases than Marcus Thames tonight for a couple reasons... First off, Thames is batting 8th tonight so he will probably get pitched around more than usual tonight.. Zito doesn't throw many strikes as it is, so I'll be willing to bet Thames walks at least once tonight, maybe twice (walks do not count towards total bases).. another thing to think about is if Zito only lasts 5 innings (highly probable), Thames might be lifted for a pinch hitter later in the game..

If you don't know about Brandon Belt yet, you soon will.. guy was born to hit..

(Disclaimer: I know Barry Zito is the worst pitcher in baseball, but I still think this is a good play..)


Brandon Belt -115 Total Bases (Marcus Thames)
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Dan Runzler replaced Zito in the 7th and gave up a triple to Thames... I am on the verge of a Landers type losing streak...

Need to turn this around

0-1 -1.15 units today

4-12 -9.04 units overall
 
Enogsiwon
Every game goes Under on Monday...

Braves/Brewers Under (8.5) +110

Pirates/Cardinals Under (9) -105

Tigers/Orioles Under (9.5) +105

Twins/Yankees Under (10) -102

Mariners/Rangers Under (9) -110
Click to expand...

I seriously feel I should be jumping on every over......

Jumped on the tigers/orioles Over 9.5 -115
Braves/brewers over 8.5 -120.

G.L king
 
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J.Saunders looked better than he really is against an inept Cubs lineup..(hope to get good price and fade next week)

Braves bullpen has to be one of the best in the league...(expect to see them have a bunch of comebacks/late wins like today)

Porcello pitched better than his results might indicate.. (might be value with him next couple starts)

Righties with Dominating stuff (Felix,Verlander) will probably do very well against this Orioles lineup..
 
After a quick glance it looks like you could take every dog tomorrow and have a profitable day...but I'll just start with the first one and go from there..

Cashner is suppose to be a solid starter for the Cubs, will he be? who knows.. I think he is a little bit mechanical...and think he will struggle with command at times..

I like the guy going for the D-Backs (B.Enright) Tuesday. He is a lot like Randy Wells of the Cubs. He won't blow you away with natural talent, but it seems like everything he throws has a little wrinkle to it with a purpose behind it... A couple well placed grounders or wind blown flyballs could mean a long day for Enright, but at +140 against a Cubs team with an aging, over rated offense is just to much to pass on..

D-Backs +140
 
One of the beauties of baseball is that it is an ever changing puzzle of pieces with countless combination's on a daily basis. This is what gives us the hope that the books can't possibly be right about every game, on every day of the long summer. On Tuesday, I believe they have completely whiffed on a line and made the wrong team the favorite.

The World Series Champion Giants will play the Adrian Gonzalez-less Padres on Tuesday at 6:35 PM Eastern. One of the Giants best young pitchers, Madison Bumgarner, will start opposite Aaron Harang who had a 5.32 era last season. The Giants opened as -118 favorites and the line is moving in their favor as it has already been bumped up to -127 as I write this. Seems like that makes sense, right? They are the champs with the better pitcher going, right? The Padres will struggle to score runs without their superstar slugger from last year, right? I don't think so...

I haven't seen the lineups yet so I am speculating a bit here.. If I am wrong it won't be the first time but I think the Padres lineup will look something like this..

1.Bartlett
2.Hudson
3.Cantu
4.Ludwick
5.Headley
6.Hundley
7.Maybin
8.Denorfia/Venable

Doesn't look like murderers row, but what I see is a lineup full of guys that should see the ball nicely coming from the left handed Bumgarners slinging motion. I can't really explain it in words but matchups are everything in baseball. It is essentially a series of individual matchups and the Padres should have 4-5 heavily in their favor against Madison.

The Giants bullpen became famous during the world series mainly because of Brian Wilson and his beard, well he isn't active right now and his little sidekick Romo had to learn two new pitches in the off season because everyone knows you need more than one pitch (swinging slider) to be good.(unless your Rivera) What I'm really trying to say is the Giants pen isn't very dominating right now... Meanwhile, the Padres have one of the best pens in Baseball lead by closer H.Bell.. Adams,Gregerson, and Qualls are all solid arms that are rested and ready to go Tuesday. Advantage:padres

As you probably know, Aaron Harang has spent the last few seasons in Cincy which is a Hitters park, especially for HR hitters.. This didn't fit Harang's style which is something I never understood. Harang is a strikeout/flyball pitcher, why in the fukk would you ever want him in Cincy?? He would even change his natural style to try and get more groundballs.. On the flipside, San Diego's Petco Park, where flyballs egual outs, seems to have been built for guys like Aaron Harang. He should be able to be himself here, and just let it go.. I honestly think this guy can have a "bad" year and have an ERA under 4 pitching in this park. So what looks like a pitching edge for the Giants on paper, when I look at it closer, I think it's the Padres, not the Giants, who have a slight advantage pitching for Tuesdays game.

Bruce Bochy isn't going to throw Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff in the outfield with all that ground to cover... is he? Is he that dumb? They wont hit any HR's tomorrow at Petco, and we all know they won't be running down any flyballs...

When Bumgarner gets lifted, the Padres will have Hawpe and Venable ready to fill in when Romo comes in..


It's only one baseball game and anything can happen, but lets just say I like the Padres Chances!!


Padres +122
 
Enogsiwon
J.Saunders looked better than he really is against an inept Cubs lineup..(hope to get good price and fade next week)

Braves bullpen has to be one of the best in the league...(expect to see them have a bunch of comebacks/late wins like today)

Porcello pitched better than his results might indicate.. (might be value with him next couple starts)

Righties with Dominating stuff (Felix,Verlander) will probably do very well against this Orioles lineup..
Click to expand...

I didn't think we would get this matchup so soon but I'm interested to see what happens. Some mayl be swayed by the rather cheap price for the Tigers on Wednesday assuming it is a trap, especially with Bergesen filling in out of the pen. Yeah, the Orioles are off to a hot start, but they will be outmatched by Verlanders dominating stuff... I think the following O's will be pretty much useless off Verlander if they end up starting...

Derrek Lee (Too old to produce off + stuff)
Adam Jones (too mechanical, superstar off average pitching, below average vs. studs)
Vlad (see Lee)
Reynolds :)lmao:)
Hardy (good luck)

So the O's are basically going to have to get production from about 3-4 guys on Wednesday.. Meanwhile, the Tigers will be facing a fifth starter/bullpen guy...

why is the line so juicy?? I'm guessing its the early season hype and Verlanders track record of slow starts.. You guys can have that, I'm taking the guy I saw dealing against the Yanks in 40 degree weather...

Tigers -124
 
The Royals love to get frisky on the bases.. Buehrle will put a halt to that shit today...

OK, I understand Francis looked pretty good against the Angels... but the guy throws a blip faster than Barry Zito... he has to throw almost every pitch where he wants it to have a great day, and even if he doesn't miss a spot all day he can still get hit hard...


Whitesox -104 (First Five Innings)
 
Marlins -186
Whitesox -110
Rays/Whitesox Under (8.5) -120
Orioles -142

I really wanted to take the Mets, but it is so hard to fade Halladay.. Mets have some nice individual #'s off of him and Niese has actually done well vs. this Phillies lineup.. Might regret this one.
 
Enogsiwon
Marlins -186
Whitesox -110
Rays/Whitesox Under (8.5) -120
Orioles -142

I really wanted to take the Mets, but it is so hard to fade Halladay.. Mets have some nice individual #'s off of him and Niese has actually done well vs. this Phillies lineup.. Might regret this one.
Click to expand...

fukkin Marlins...

3-1 +1.14 units Thursday

13-16 -4.67 units Overall
 
The Oakland Athletics aren't going to win the AL West this year, I thought they were, but after watching a couple games it is clear they wont. They don't hit for enough power and have an over rated bullpen that includes 4 lefties last time i checked. Oddly enough, the things that will hurt them over the long haul will actually help them today... or at least I hope..

The A's won't have a guy that hits .300 or even comes close to hitting 35 HR's this year.. They don't have a superstar offensive player... Today against the Twins, this will be a good thing. Carl Pavano is a pitcher that relies on throwing strikes and getting hitters out with movement. Teams that take what he gives them usually do pretty well against him... This is something the A's do very well, almost by default, because they don't really have anyone that does anything extraordinary. Here are the career numbers of today's lineup off Pavano...

Crisp: .427 (3-7)
Barton: .667 (2-3)
Dejesus: .423 (11-26, HR)
Willingham: ----------
Matsui: .500 (4-8)
Sazuki: .286 (2-7)
Ellis: .400 (2-5)
Kouzmanoff: .000 (0-3)
Pennington: .333 (1-3)

All those at-bats off him and only 1 HR, but this is what I was talking about, they take what you give them... They should get their fair share hits today against Pavano, hopefully they will string them together and give Anderson some early runs...


As i said earlier, I think the A's bullpen isn't very good this year. They got Balfour in the offseason and he hasn't been very impressive. Baily, Harden, and Wuertz are all hurt, so who does that leave them with?? Four Lefty's that all throw from different arm angles and windups... Usually this is a pretty dumb idea, but against the Twins who have 4 good hitting Lefty's in their lineup (Span, Mauer, Morneau, and Thome) it is actually a good thing.. We might not even see these guys if young left-hander Brett Anderson throws a gem, which he is very capable of..

The A's barrage of lefty's and past success off Pavano should lead them to a win today...

No one baseball game is a lock, so bet accordingly...
 
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