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MLB PECOTA Projections 2010

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/336171-2010-pecota-projections-the-winners



MLB: 2010 PECOTA Projections
by 643 Sports Contributor
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
It's that time of year, when baseball nerds emerge from the depths of their basements, with calculators and protractors at the ready, to summarily ruin the game of baseball for everyone else.

Hyperbole and satire aside, the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections, for players and teams alike, have been released by Baseball Prospectus for the upcoming season.

Entire team and player projections (put in terms of statistics such as AVG, OBP, SLG, and VORP) are available to premium subscribers to the site, while the rest of us will have to make do with the team win projections (linked above) and the two individual team audits available for free.

As of now, the depth-chart projections are said to be in the "beta" phase by Baseball Prospectus, as many calculation errors were found in the first few runs of PECOTA for the new year. Specifically, defense was being double-counted by the projection system, and the run totals for individual players did not meet up with what their parent teams were expected to score in 2010.

These problems , along with other statistical jargon that I would only understand had I remained a stats major in college (I didn't), have forced the boys at BP to continually update and change the projections.

So here are the division winners and proposed wild card teams (with their win-loss record and projected AVG, OBP, and SLG) as projected by PECOTA as they stand now:

NL East : Atlanta Braves (85-77, .268/.344/.416) OR Philadelphia Phillies (85-77, .266/.342/.432)

NL Central : St. Louis Cardinals (86-76, .267/.339/.416)

NL West : Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76, .266/.335/.412)

NL Wild Card : Braves OR Phillies

AL East : Boston Red Sox (93-69, .275/.356/.448) OR New York Yankees (93-69, .277/.367/.455)

AL Central : Minnesota Twins (83-79, .280/.352/.444)

AL West : Oakland A's (85-77, .264/.343/.418)

AL Wild Card : Red Sox OR Yankees

Keep in mind that these projections have been changing since they were first released, so these projected winners may not match up with a blog post from a week ago or even a week from now.

And of course, don't be discouraged if your team is not projected to make the playoffs as of right now, there are still free agents to be signed and trades to be made, rosters still need to be set in stone (not to mention day-to-day lineups, something that PECOTA makes only educated guesses at), so there are still many things each team can do to change their projected season.

If thinking about those factors does little to assuage jaded emotions, remember that the 2009 PECOTA projections for team win-loss records had an average margin of error by 8.5 games, nearly double the error of the previous season.

Above all, remember that these are just projections . These should not be used as bona fide betting lines, rather as guides to see how a team's current composition projects to fare in the current environment in the MLB.

With that, enjoy, discuss, and let us all do our best to move as quickly through February as possible.

-Jonathan Platek
 

Lay Paraguay from advancing in the World Cup group stage?

Harsh thought but...

Salvador Cabaas, striker and main player for the Paraguay national team got shot in the head in a bar/lady bar in Mexico City. He was was having a dispute with two guys over a Cuban prostitute.

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Friday Night Football Preview

It's the battle for Southern California in the Lingerie Football League and it's all to play for as Los Angeles Temptation takes on San Diego Seduction. The Los Angeles Temptation are fresh off a victory against the previously unbeaten Seattle Mist and, with a margin of victory of 32 points on Friday, they can steal the #2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs from Seattle. In their last game, San Diego lost 40-6 after being overpowered by the Dallas Desire so there is a lot of hope for Los Angeles in their season finale. Not to mention, the Temptation's Head Coach has already won two Lingerie Bowls.

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If anyone has read this far down, Vegas has the line at Los Angeles -9 with the O/U set at 35.
 

Tim Tebow Still Headline News

It was all going so well for Tim Tebow until the 2009 SEC Championship game. Well, things were not exactly going perfectly well in the big scheme of things but he was doing just fine. Florida were the number one team in the country, they were 5 point favorites going into the game and were well on their way to consecutive National Championships. But Tebow and Florida came out on the losing side, drowned by the Crimson Tide 32-12.


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And then came the questions - the same questions that dogged him earlier in the year when he pondered about entering himself into the 2009 draft and have dogged him ever since – could he actually be a quarterback in the NFL? That one was probably always going to run until draft day whenever ESPN have a slow news day but it would have been a good plan to concentrate on football and concentrate on keeping a low profile. Agreeing to be involved with what is claimed to be an anti-abortion advertisement to be aired during the Super Bowl? Questionable move.


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Aside from that, Tim Tebow has been getting back to business this week. And that business is proving to the 32 NFL teams that he can be an effective QB and get a nice fat paycheck rather than being drafted in the 4th Round and getting paid in bibles. But he wasn’t off to the best of starts – in Monday’s practice session for the Senior Bowl Yahoo quoted a NFC talent scout on Monday who quipped “he looks like the third QB out there”. Unfortunately for Tebow, there were only 3 QBs out there. On Tuesday USA Today reported that an anonymous CBS Sports executive concluded “Great kid but some of the worst mechanics and accuracy I've seen on a big-time QB prospect”. Ouch.

The Senior Bowl is on Saturday which is Tebow’s chance to show the NFL that he can adjust his game and actually take snaps from anywhere but the shotgun on a national stage. But what if it’s a disaster? What if he’s merely ordinary? Then what? Well personally it could actually make me believe that may be a god and that god has a sense of humor.
 
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NHL Plays 1/31

Well I posted a loser yesterday so hopefully I can make up for it today.

There is an early game and I am going to go with the Pens. I know at -150 that seems like a lot of chalk to lay against the Red Wings but Detroit has been reeling. This is not the same team that went to the Finals the last couple of years and although Pittsburgh is not playing their best they are still playing better than Detroit.

Penguins at -148

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More Plays likely to come later.
 

2010 Pro Bowl

Who cares right? Well fellas. It is rainy and cool here close to the stadium. Players really are going to be doing there best to get the game over with. What's the best way to get it over with quickly? Running the ball and eating up the clock. People have been driving up the over/under all week and now that its almost game time and the weather is piss poor for Miami standards, its time to take the under. If it were perfect conditions I would say take the over, but its not. So I'm going to take my chances, sip back a few cold Yuenglings and bank on the players caring less than I do about who wins.

PLAY:

Pro Bowl UNDER 58