Grenoble Vs Auxerre - Auxerre -0.25 @ Evens
To be honest, i can't understand the price here, i would be expecting closer to 4/5 and that is either a trap or that the books are wary to have an away fav so lowly priced.
Auxerre are certainly in excellent form, they have both solid overall form as well as recent form. They have won 3 of their last 4 and have just 2 defeats in their last 10, none in their last 7.
During this span, they have won their last 2 on the road and have just one away defeat in their last 8 - winning 4. That one defeat was away to PSG which is no terrible thing. they have beaten Marseille away and very poor Nice, who are also fighting for survival.
There is talk that Ljuboja is sh*t and draining away any quality in Grenoble's team and with just 12 goals all season, and 15 conceded in their last 6; i expect this to be about 1-0 or 2-0.
I believe Auxerre to get at least 1, making a draw the worst scenario in my view, so taking the -0.25 covers this.
My only belief for the price being so high is Auxerre injuries which number 3/4 first teamers.
Grenoble are terrible and have shown nothing to why they should have any chance here, except the ineptitude of Auxerre or a 0-0 draw.
Hereford PK Vs Torquay
I think DNB on the home side here is a good value bet for a team that are notoriously very strong at home, and it has been this home form that has kept them afloat this season.
They have managed to win 6 of their 12 home games this season and they are facing a Torquay side who are very poor on the road.
They have not won in any of their last 10 games on the road but have been managed to get 6 draws from them.
They are in pretty weak form in total, just 4 wins in their last 15 and 1 win on the road all season.
Hereford have just 2 home defeats this year and 1 was to Notts County.
from a situational viewpoint, this also fits into Hereford's favour, as i think with both in mid table, Torquay are going to be happy, 7 points off the bottom 2 and i don't think that gap will be closed tomorrow.
I believe this to be the time of the season when simple 2-0 home wins become the norm for these teams and i don't see this being an away win, so the insurance at a healthy price is helpful.
Hereford PK @ 8/11 - Bet365
