roguejuror
rouge
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Vegas Dave
Not a Real GameLiver
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Man fokk sports betting.
Seems the only clear path to winning is advantage betting/line shopping, which will get you chucked or limited quickly.
Then even if you do crack the code handicapping or model-wise (feels impossible), they'd chuck your ass for winning % eventually too.
Not to mention all the 🦊🦊🦊
MrMonkey
USA! USA!! USA!!!
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Plus who knows they might just come over and wack you as an example. Is murder still only a misdemeanor iin Cali?
roguejuror
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Matty
Calorie Smart Human
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I took all my monies out. I could still place paper bets but I dunno. I don't think my shit is working tbh.
Archie
SP Nation and I Ruin things
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darn it
Matty
Calorie Smart Human
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@roguejuror what was the name of the cuban meal I had in Miami Lakes with you?
roguejuror
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ooh I don't quite remember, maybe it was ropa vieja and tostones?
roguejuror
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THIS IS A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS @Vegas Dave
Vegas Dave
Not a Real GameLiver
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The same thing happened with a month or so left in the MLB season Roguey 😢
Might have cost @Matty POTY in 2024 😞, hopefully the voters are more forgiving in 2025.
betplom
Everythings computer!
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The only thing that cost Matty POTY was the rigging of the votes.
Matty
Calorie Smart Human
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AND at the end of last hockey season. Massive, quick downswing. Ima be trying to make sense of it all.
Vegas Dave
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The annoying thing (besides losing money and morale obviously) is it's impossible to know without much more data if it's just a variance issue or a model issue. Frustrating either way, sorry good sir.
Tron
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They don’t chuck you if you are wagering small amounts ($30-$100).
Sorry, Mattyballs. It’s frustrating after putting in all that work.
Beisbol?
Vegas Dave
Not a Real GameLiver
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Would depend on volume and win rate, but yeah, at smaller amounts you'd be far more likely to fly under the radar.They don’t chuck you if you are wagering small amounts ($30-$100).
Sorry, Mattyballs. It’s frustrating after putting in all that work.
Beisbol?
roguejuror
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Boner_18
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Can't you use serious maths to figure out the likelihood the model is trash?
If the model has a 5% edge, the minimum to be profitable or whatever, the likelihood of going 5-5744764 is X?
Something like that?
If the model has a 5% edge, the minimum to be profitable or whatever, the likelihood of going 5-5744764 is X?
Something like that?
FairWarning
Boring Poster
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I think modeling is tough when you get to the last third of and season. A lot of outside factors creep
In - injuries, planned rest, teams tanking. The way tron bets may be the best - just quit before the season ends.