Matty Rain's 2024-25 NHL Thread

[roguejuror]

Dunno what to make of it

you know what we could use @Vegas Dave support once in a while

I feel let down

 

[Vegas Dave]

you know what we could use @Vegas Dave support once in a while

I feel let down

Man fokk sports betting.

Seems the only clear path to winning is advantage betting/line shopping, which will get you chucked or limited quickly.

Then even if you do crack the code handicapping or model-wise (feels impossible), they'd chuck your ass for winning % eventually too.

Not to mention all the 🦊🦊🦊

 

[MrMonkey]

Not to mention all the 🦊🦊🦊

Plus who knows they might just come over and wack you as an example. Is murder still only a misdemeanor iin Cali?

 

[roguejuror]

 

[Matty]

I took all my monies out. I could still place paper bets but I dunno. I don't think my shit is working tbh.

 

[Archie]

darn it

 

[Matty]

@roguejuror what was the name of the cuban meal I had in Miami Lakes with you?

 

[roguejuror]

@roguejuror what was the name of the cuban meal I had in Miami Lakes with you?

ooh I don't quite remember, maybe it was ropa vieja and tostones?

 

[roguejuror]

I took all my monies out. I could still place paper bets but I dunno. I don't think my shit is working tbh.

THIS IS A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS @Vegas Dave

 

[Vegas Dave]

THIS IS A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS @Vegas Dave

The same thing happened with a month or so left in the MLB season Roguey 😢

Might have cost @Matty POTY in 2024 😞, hopefully the voters are more forgiving in 2025.

 

[betplom]

The only thing that cost Matty POTY was the rigging of the votes.

 

[Matty]

The same thing happened with a month or so left in the MLB season Roguey 😢

AND at the end of last hockey season. Massive, quick downswing. Ima be trying to make sense of it all.

 

[Vegas Dave]

AND at the end of last hockey season. Massive, quick downswing. Ima be trying to make sense of it all.

The annoying thing (besides losing money and morale obviously) is it's impossible to know without much more data if it's just a variance issue or a model issue. Frustrating either way, sorry good sir.

 

[Tron]

Man fokk sports betting.

Seems the only clear path to winning is advantage betting/line shopping, which will get you chucked or limited quickly.

Then even if you do crack the code handicapping or model-wise (feels impossible), they'd chuck your ass for winning % eventually too.

Not to mention all the 🦊🦊🦊

They don’t chuck you if you are wagering small amounts ($30-$100).

Sorry, Mattyballs. It’s frustrating after putting in all that work.

Beisbol?

 

[Vegas Dave]

They don’t chuck you if you are wagering small amounts ($30-$100).

Sorry, Mattyballs. It’s frustrating after putting in all that work.

Beisbol?

Would depend on volume and win rate, but yeah, at smaller amounts you'd be far more likely to fly under the radar.

 

[roguejuror]

The same thing happened

I'm shook

(⊙︿⊙)

 

[Boner_18]

Can't you use serious maths to figure out the likelihood the model is trash?

If the model has a 5% edge, the minimum to be profitable or whatever, the likelihood of going 5-5744764 is X?

Something like that?

 

[FairWarning]

Can't you use serious maths to figure out the likelihood the model is trash?

If the model has a 5% edge, the minimum to be profitable or whatever, the likelihood of going 5-5744764 is X?

Something like that?

I think modeling is tough when you get to the last third of and season. A lot of outside factors creep
In - injuries, planned rest, teams tanking. The way tron bets may be the best - just quit before the season ends.