Hooligans Sportsbook

Durito, MF, et all - all math wiz's please

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    45 Replies •
  • Views 3,973 Views
Follow
you should read my post before you get all bothered. I questioned what you're doing because it didn't make a lot of sense to me. If you plan on hedging out a large 200-1 some shot, waiting until he's a fav is not going to give you many opportunities.
You want easy answers to difficult questions. And you get offended(?) for no reason.
 
MonkeyF0cker
It's hard to say what course is best unless you're modeling the matches and know the probabilities of him winning his matches down the line. It's really a personal utility issue. You can let it ride for a few rounds and hope that he doesn't get knocked out. Or you could try to find some +EV wagers on his opponents and scalp parts of it out down the line. Long odds in a big field like that are tricky. If it were my wager, I'd let it ride until his future has a bit more value and you could scalp out of it (by laying on Betfair as durito suggested for example) for a better profit.
Click to expand...

This is my whole problem. I can't figure out when I should ditch the future.

ie I had Djokovic to win the Australian Open. For Reno's sake I'll say I made $2 when I ditched the bet in the semis. Of course he went on to win.

I had Na Li to win the Aussie Open Women. I started ditching her from the quarters on and made a profit but I think it could've been better

I think I just wanted help that can't be given here which is cool.

I'm probably better off just going with my own way of doing things than anything else.

Thanks again :)
 
Oksana
This is my whole problem. I can't figure out when I should ditch the future.

ie I had Djokovic to win the Australian Open. For Reno's sake I'll say I made $2 when I ditched the bet in the semis. Of course he went on to win.

I had Na Li to win the Aussie Open Women. I started ditching her from the quarters on and made a profit but I think it could've been better

I think I just wanted help that can't be given here which is cool.

I'm probably better off just going with my own way of doing things than anything else.

Thanks again :)
Click to expand...

There is no right mathematical answer without having future matches modeled. Future bets are merely combinatorial parlays of individual events. You're dealing with probabilities that are currently unknown. And they're simply that. You can maximize the highest liklihood knowing those probabilities. However, that still doesn't mean that it plays out that way. Without knowing those probabilities, you're left with a guessing game. It's not a bad wager. It's just hard to say when the "right time" to buy back out of it is exactly. He could get upset in the first round. Who knows? It comes down to personal utility and what you are satisfied with as a profit. Are you willing to risk losing your wager(s) to increase your profit? Only you can really say when that point arrives.
 
The right answers had already been given before I posted. There was no point in repeating them. And if you had mentioned making a bet 3-4 weeks before the tournament in your first post, I wouldn't have asked.

Have a good fuck and herpes too.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.