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Durito, MF, et all - all math wiz's please

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reno cool
that ticket pays 10k. You hedged out for 7k? :clueless: he must have became a huge favorite somewhere.
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What do you mean??? He wasn't a huge favourite anywhere in the match I bet against him in other than when he won the first set but even then, anyone watching knew he was cooked.

It was Johannesburg ATP the last week of January.

He was coming against a player that has a great serve and wasn't exhausted at -140 or so. So I put some money on my guy to win 2-1 and put a big chunk on the guy who I thought would win - Kevin Anderson - and it paid off.

It wasn't that hard of a bet if you follow tennis. I knew my guy wouldn't win this match 2-0 but just in case Anderson was a bit wobbly I wanted to protect myself with the 2-1. And sure enough, Mannarino won the first set and ditched the next 2.

Maybe I got lucky - probably did - but again, this wasn't rocket science if you're a tennis follower. :)
 
Wakky, the majority of the posters on here are Canucks. A few others live in countries outside of the US.

Maybe you should branch out a bit and familiarise yourself with betting standards that the rest of the world use.

But I do agree that posting the actual tourney would be helpful, yet still - a simple search on your book of choice will let you know if you have that match or not.

Kind of the same thing when I see obscure soccer matches posted.
 
And just so the likes of vagabond and Reno don't ever doubt me again, check out my posts on SBR on Feb 5.

Seriously dudes, I asked for help. Go get fucked.

"This future bet is going to give me grey hairs now. I put a unit on it thinking I'd have a great trading opportunity earlier in the tournament and green out some - obviously not the whole $10,000. Now though, it's getting serious. I honestly thought since I had picked ok with the futures in the Aussie Open that my luck had been used up for the year. Cripes - it's very hard to hedge this one with that much money involved.

Happy to see the parlay and Mayer cashed. Sorry I couldn't get on here to confirm Mayer in time, but by the time my Internet was up again the match had started. Hopefully a few of you jumped on."

I put a chunk on at $51 and my friends put a shitload on at $201 with our combined cash because I couldn't get everything down. Because I make their tennis bets, well, I make their tennis bets.

I'm a loser in a lot of things people, but I don't bloody lie. Go check the goddamn thread.
 
ONE MORE TIME -

GET FUCKED RENO AND VAGABOND.

Just because you're too big of vag's to put a $50 bet on a $200-1 shot in tennis - how about when I ask for math help you just give it instead of trying to bust me on a bet 4 months ago.

Because I promise you, you won't bust me on shit. Try, try, try again.

And now I know why I contact the smart people I've met from here privately when I need betting help.

Thanks!!
 
MonkeyF0cker
So you bet it with the intention of scalping it? Not sure why someone would question that. Just tell them they're idiots and carry on. :dunno:
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I bet it with 1000000000% of scalping it.

Just like I said. I had Melzer at $251, a guy in my thread said he found him offshore at $100-1 so after our big Aussie book (which had him at $51-1) I bought it.

Is that so bloody bad????

Now I've got wingers worried about my past bets, which I've documented in my silly SBR thread, and not helping me with this fucking bet.

I was hoping someone could tell me a number ie if the other guy is $1.50, sell etc....

I don't know. Just wanted some help because I thought I finally bought a value bet after the stupid thing dropped $200.

Obviously not the place to ask though. Thanks for the help :)
 
Oksana
ONE MORE TIME -

GET FUCKED RENO AND VAGABOND.

Just because you're too big of vag's to put a $50 bet on a $200-1 shot in tennis - how about when I ask for math help you just give it instead of trying to bust me on a bet 4 months ago.

Because I promise you, you won't bust me on shit. Try, try, try again.

And now I know why I contact the smart people I've met from here privately when I need betting help.

Thanks!!
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bust you? You think I give a fuck what you did or didn't do? You must think you're at sbr.

If you bet something at 250-1 and you can buy it back at 100-1 you have profit. There's no math needed. If you can calculate prices on his futures matches in the tournament you can use those odds to figure out true odds. But I assume you dont have those #s in front of you.

In regards your other bet, it seems that you scalped it out at a point where it was a big favorite. And yes from 200-1 to less than even money is a pretty unlikely scenario.
 
Oksana
ONE MORE TIME -

GET FUCKED RENO AND VAGABOND.

Just because you're too big of vag's to put a $50 bet on a $200-1 shot in tennis - how about when I ask for math help you just give it instead of trying to bust me on a bet 4 months ago.

Because I promise you, you won't bust me on shit. Try, try, try again.

And now I know why I contact the smart people I've met from here privately when I need betting help.

Thanks!!
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bust you? You think I give a fuck what you did or didn't do? You must think you're at sbr.

If you bet something at 250-1 and you can buy it back at 100-1 you have profit. There's no math needed. If you can calculate prices on his futures matches in the tournament you can use those odds to figure out true odds. But I assume you dont have those #s in front of you.

In regards your other bet, it seems that you scalped it out at a point where it was a big favorite. And yes from 200-1 to less than even money is a pretty unlikely scenario.
 
It's hard to say what course is best unless you're modeling the matches and know the probabilities of him winning his matches down the line. It's really a personal utility issue. You can let it ride for a few rounds and hope that he doesn't get knocked out. Or you could try to find some +EV wagers on his opponents and scalp parts of it out down the line. Long odds in a big field like that are tricky. If it were my wager, I'd let it ride until his future has a bit more value and you could scalp out of it (by laying on Betfair as durito suggested for example) for a better profit.
 
Funny you rag SBR yet the first time in almost my year at GL that the first time I mention the $ amount of a bet that I won you doubt me. Because it doesn't fit your little model for what should happen. Sorry love - I've won a lot bigger bets than that. So terrible they'd probably blow your mathy mind.

Yet I documented the whole thing and you and vagabond still questioned me.

So I guess you're right - I did think I was at SBR. With people skipping over the point of the thread and focusing on shit that doesn't matter. Lo and behold - they're wrong. Surprise, surprise. I guess people just travel incognito. Or maybe not so far across forums after all. ;)

Thanks for the help and the scepticism but I have no clue what you're trying to say in that post as I have no hope of calculating his future matches without the odds available.

I appreciate the attempt though. :)
 
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