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Who is going to be the next President of the United States?

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This Kamala could do it:

Kamala


The other one is political party suicide.
 
Trump is pretty likely to win at this point, hard to argue against betting on him at current price of -175ish

For value I'd consider betting on Harris now at +450ish before she goes any lower. She's supremely unlikeable and less likely to win, in my opinion, then Gavin Newsom would be.

But dems on a time crunch wont have time to replace Biden with anyone besides her. And last election, Biden won on pure hate for Trump vs his own merits. Since then Trump had the Jan 6 incident, the 34 guilty verdicts. Dems are scared of Project 2025 too.

IF she becomes the candidate and IF half of US still hates Trump passionately enough, she may win just to keep him out. Whereas Biden at this point isn't going to win any independent voters in his clear stupor.
Damn that +450/+500 post debate ticket would be looking nice now down to +185.

She's got a real shot. Of course Trump is more likely to win, but this is all giving me 2016 vibes where the general public figured Trump had no chance at all.

It's similar in reverse, now. Trump win seems like a forgone conclusion, but that ignores how much half of this country hates him. Not too many people were excited about Biden, and he stomped Trump in '20. Dems exceeded expectations in '22 midterms. It'll be interesting.