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UConn v. Michigan

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MonkeyF0cker
So what in game film told you that they would abandon a successful strategy?
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At the end of game 3 when two man game and iso Kobe on the elbow (doubling with the guy from the left side of the screen to clog the paint- was forcing Kobe to go one dribble to the left usually of the left elbow and dribble step back towards the baseline from the right elbow)- was killing the Celtics.
 
Matt Rain
Your original post (#27) was condescending towards actual bettors.
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When I said "you can't use model's on two teams that are completely different than last year. you haven't even seen anything from them. This wolverines team is 100% different than last year, different schemes, different plays, different mindset. Good luck with using a model to predict what you have yet to see."

I don't think FlyingDutchman was offended by my post ????

Blitty I was talking about the guy who called me a moron and then a different name as well. also your comment that "big sports fans are not good gamblers" can be considered condescending. I am a pretty big sports fan and have been gambling for years, NBA for over 10 years, but I am not a professional gambler by any means.

anyway this thread should be focused on the Michigan Game.
 
Goat Milk...welcome to Gamelive. Enjoy your stay.

I can't remember...did you like MI or CT? MI running away right now a little bit.

I faded MF for a pretty big bet on Uconn, but also faded Tully and took MI $line...so no bubbles no troubles..ya dig?
 
Goat Milk
At the end of game 3 when two man game and iso Kobe on the elbow (doubling with the guy from the left side of the screen to clog the paint- was forcing Kobe to go one dribble to the left usually of the left elbow and dribble step back towards the baseline from the right elbow)- was killing the Celtics.
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So now the half court was killing the Celtics? Come on.

The problem is that you cannot possibly correctly guess the tempo of the game with enough accuracy to be profitable. Meanwhile, a modeler can create a distribution of possession probabilities to account for the variances that may occur in tempo. While you are forced to play a guessing game, the underlying probabilities are built into the line.
 
MonkeyF0cker
So now the half court was killing the Celtics? Come on.

The problem is that you cannot possibly correctly guess the tempo of the game with enough accuracy to be profitable. Meanwhile, a modeler can create a distribution of possession probabilities to account for the variances that may occur in tempo. While you are forced to play a guessing game, the underlying probabilities are built into the line.
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It wasn't really half court sets, the Lakers faded the triangle in those games too because it didn't work well in 08. It was really just two man game and iso with Kobe. Bryant got a bit cocky after game 3 and thought that the one dribble pull up would be successful for the remiander of the series. The playoffs is a coaches game, its not about numbers, its about film.

The regular season, I feel you monkey, its all about numbers and projections. And models can be very accurate. But I know multiple people that use models during the regular season that do very well. These guys use these same models during the playoffs and they get buried. Playoffs are a different animal.

But I agree 100% that during the reg season, a good model can bring in nice profits.
 
The people you know aren't very good modelers if they can't create a profitable postseason model. In one breath you say that it's all about game film, and in another, you say that the coach abandons a successful strategy for no apparent reason. No matter what, you (as one who relies on game film) are left with merely guesswork.
 
MonkeyF0cker
The people you know aren't very good modelers if they can't create a profitable postseason model. In one breath you say that it's all about game film, and in another, you say that the coach abandons a successful strategy for no apparent reason. No matter what, you (as one who relies on game film) are left with merely guesswork.
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This is the beauty of it. Anticipating how a coach reacts to your gameplan, because you must remember they are watching the same film you are, so they are making adjustments to and its all about getting inside their head. The same thing isn't going to work every game for this reason. I suppose I feel this way because I have watched and played ball for 25 years (only gambling for 10). For this reason it is pretty easy for me to study film and analyze things and anticipate each coaches gameplan. The most imporatnat thing is that because there are so many variables involves in a game plan (you will not be able to correctly project everything) but a careful film study and experience of the game can help you get the majority of the variables on point. It's not a guessing game Monkey. Anyway this is just my opinion. We can probably go on and on about this until another person comes in here and calls me a moron.

21-0 Michigan.
 
It's most certainly a guessing game. To say otherwise is extremely obtuse.

You're wrong and I'd certainly put up money against you showing a profit in either the regular season or the postseason utilizing that methodology. If it's that easy, why aren't you a professional?
 
So now someone that hasn't watched the game for nearly as long as I have is telling me its a guessing game? I am not a professional because I have a main source of income. Gambling is just a hobbie of mine, it does not control my life. You seem to have all the answers MF, a typical gambler. :bowdown:

Good luck fading me during the playoffs :yes:
 
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