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Tuesday Mud

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wal66

wal66

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I have a bunch of qualifiers today for hockey but being that the season is winding down I'm not really sure how much confidence I can put in my system. Got some road dogs that qualify today and that bothers me a bit because generally home teams are the ones that qualify.

Option #1: Ottawa/Carolina UNDER 5.5 (-140)

Option #2: New Jersey/Boston UNDER 5 (-135)

Option #3: Florida Panthers Money Line +190

Option #4: Washington Money Line +150

Option #5: Buffalo/Montreal UNDER 5.5 (-135)

Option #6: Columbus/Colorado OVER 5.5 (-120)

Option #7: St Louis Money Line +155

Let's see if our hockey guys see anything here they agree with.
 
Thanks Muddy but why Florida? Price wise Washington is the better road dog option. All 3 dogs listed here hold a 6-4 record against their opponent over the last 10 meetings. I appreciate that you still try MudMan.


Fokn' hockey guys act like they are too good to offer up an opinion.
 
wal66
Thanks Muddy but why Florida? Price wise Washington is the better road dog option. All 3 dogs listed here hold a 6-4 record against their opponent over the last 10 meetings. I appreciate that you still try MudMan.


Fokn' hockey guys act like they are too good to offer up an opinion.
Click to expand...



In terms of value I liked Florida better.

They were +190 against a team that is not great. Rangers are a .500 type of squad. Sub-500 at home in fact. Rangers don't deserve to be that big a favorite against anyone IMO.

Washington is not a bad value but they are without Ovie and up against Philly who have a good home record.

Washington is more likely to win but the difference in odds, +190 versus +150, is significant. It made Florida a better value to my way of thinking.

(I am speaking in past tense because both lines have moved).

Actually, the more I think about it, maybe I do like the Wash play a bit better.
 
Well the reason I swayed on Washington was because I figured that too much importance was being placed on one player, Ovechkin. Unlike basketball where missing your best player should have a tangible effect on the line, I don't believe that is the case with hockey. Hockey is much more of a team game.

Their records suggest that Washington and Philly are basically equal teams. Home ice is worth something but getting +150 more than compensates in the long run.
 
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