Hooligans Sportsbook

Trouble - need help

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    115 Replies •
  • Views 7,905 Views
Follow
weird07.jpg


Thread has come a long way from the baby shower.
 
wal66
Ok, explination of randomness.

You know how it is said that a team has a 3 point edge for homefield advantage, well that may be true for some teams but not every team. I have my own variables for homefields, level of intensity for certain situations so forth and so on. I call it random because it's not the same for every team and not the same for every situation. To add to the randomness it could change for the same team, on the same field but playing under different circumstances.

So as I've said this variable is flawed due to it's randomness but at the same time it has been they key to making what I have done work.
Click to expand...

Ah. Okay. I wouldn't use the word random to describe that, and I wouldn't consider it flawed for any of the reasons you gave. It's an interesting enough angle, actually. I have no clue if the market is inefficient in its treatment of HFA in college football, but it wouldn't shock me. There are ways you could better test your theories on home-field-advantage. So that would be my advice, if you were trying to improve.
 
I am with you on the randomness Wal. I just call it judgment. With some sports I stick very close to my data and pretty much make blind plays when I see certain numerical situations. I don't need to know a single player on either team or injuries or anything.

But with NFL more than any sport, I just sit back and look at the match-up and mull over what I am seeing. I factor in the home/away records, strength of opposition, and how hot they are.

There is absolutely no way I can turn what I do with NFL into a formula that could be methodically back-tested against prior data.



I guess the only difference between you and me is you seem very confident what you do will last, whereas I am constantly thinking, this has all been a big wonderful aberration and it has to fall apart sometime - probably soon.
 
Mr.X, I truly believe that the biggest problem for anyone who is a fan and gambling is the inability to disconnect. Even if most think they are capable of taking their ego’s, loyalties or passions out of their decision making process the truth is most can’t. I know I couldn’t. I spent years being the “by gawd I’ll show ya” guy when my team was playing or my conference was challenged. That mindset is a prime reason for losing.

When I started using what I am using now it allowed me to see numbers and not teams or loyalties. It helped me further by enabling me to see potential underdogs with value that I never saw before. It also helped my see dogs with real potential for outright wins.

All these things are there for anyone to see but most of us aren’t capable of getting out of the way of our own biases. So even if it really doesn’t work mathematically or even logically it works because I think it works. It works because it allowed me to get out of my own way.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.