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The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

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Herman
Yep, one of the Ray's scouts begged them to take Pujols early but the guy pulling the strings declined.
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Sounds a dubious story with more than a little hyperbole thrown in for effect. A scout might have liked the look of him but in no way did he know he would be the best hitter in baseball. In other news, Delmon Young was taken by the Rays as the #1 overall pick in the 2003 draft. Like I said, a crapshoot.
 
Archie
what team has been the most successful in getting their first round picks to the majors over the past decade?
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That could be calculated but it wouldn't be a fair comparison. A poorly performing team would get high first round draft picks and, since they are on a bad team, the picks are more likely to make it to the majors. Compare that to say the Yankees, they don't get high first round draft picks and the quality of the roster means that it is a lot harder for those prospects to break into the majors.
 
Props to Derek Jeter for his 3,000th hit today, great career for sure....

However, I find it extremely hilarious that the Yanks are paying $51 million over 3 years for a replacement level player. Baseball Reference calculates Jeter's WAR so far this year at 0.0, while FanGraphs gives him a tad bit of credit at 0.5 WAR.

You'd think a team with a near $200M payroll would have a player who gets the most PA's (if he played all 162 games, he was injured) who had a decent WAR but they do not. His offensive WAR is 0.3 but he gives those back on defense. Watch him win the gold glove with a negative defensive WAR. He did last year while having a -0.9 dWAR. If they want to pay him that ridiculous salary, you'd think they'd at least tell him to :fok: off and hit in the 7 hole or something and put Gardner at leadoff.

Polaroid, do you prefer the FanGraphs or Baseball Reference calculation of WAR? I've read that their formulas were a tad bit different.

Also I want to apologize to A-Rod from yesterday, he actually is hurt and is contemplating surgery. I called him out for skipping the ASG.
 
Herman
Props to Derek Jeter for his 3,000th hit today, great career for sure....

However, I find it extremely hilarious that the Yanks are paying $51 million over 3 years for a replacement level player. Baseball Reference calculates Jeter's WAR so far this year at 0.0, while FanGraphs gives him a tad bit of credit at 0.5 WAR.
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It's easy to say that with hindsight. Jeter is probably has a ceiling of a 3-3.5 WAR player at this stage of his career which will decline over the next two years so obviously the Yankees overpaid for him but they have the obsession with having their long tenured players retiring wearing pinstripes. Note also the ridiculous contract given to Rivera in the offseason and the even more ridiculous ARod extension.

Herman
You'd think a team with a near $200M payroll would have a player who gets the most PA's (if he played all 162 games, he was injured) who had a decent WAR but they do not. His offensive WAR is 0.3 but he gives those back on defense. Watch him win the gold glove with a negative defensive WAR. He did last year while having a -0.9 dWAR. If they want to pay him that ridiculous salary, you'd think they'd at least tell him to :fok: off and hit in the 7 hole or something and put Gardner at leadoff.
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The manager of the Yankees doesn't only have to manage the players but he has to manage the egos of the players. Having Jeter hitting leadoff when his true position should be #7 will obviously cost the team during the season (and the cost of doing this is well documented) but sometimes the club will ignore this to some extent for the sake of team harmony - recall Posada taking himself out of the lineup when he was relegated to the #9 spot.

Herman
Polaroid, do you prefer the FanGraphs or Baseball Reference calculation of WAR? I've read that their formulas were a tad bit different.
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They are different, I've forgotten in how they differ exactly but I prefer FanGraphs purely because I like their writers and the site is a lot more user friendly in terms of collecting statistics.
 
Herman
Props to Derek Jeter for his 3,000th hit today, great career for sure....

However, I find it extremely hilarious that the Yanks are paying $51 million over 3 years for a replacement level player. Baseball Reference calculates Jeter's WAR so far this year at 0.0, while FanGraphs gives him a tad bit of credit at 0.5 WAR.

You'd think a team with a near $200M payroll would have a player who gets the most PA's (if he played all 162 games, he was injured) who had a decent WAR but they do not. His offensive WAR is 0.3 but he gives those back on defense. Watch him win the gold glove with a negative defensive WAR. He did last year while having a -0.9 dWAR. If they want to pay him that ridiculous salary, you'd think they'd at least tell him to :fok: off and hit in the 7 hole or something and put Gardner at leadoff.

Polaroid, do you prefer the FanGraphs or Baseball Reference calculation of WAR? I've read that their formulas were a tad bit different.

Also I want to apologize to A-Rod from yesterday, he actually is hurt and is contemplating surgery. I called him out for skipping the ASG.
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yankees are about winning, not SABER stats. There is a place in sports for winners and leadership - two things that math cannot put a price on.
 
FairWarning
yankees are about winning, not SABER stats. There is a place in sports for winners and leadership - two things that math cannot put a price on.
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I disagree that Derek Jeter leading off for the Yankees at $17M a year at age 37-39 is +EV because of his leadership. I'm sure the Rays and Red Sox have no problem with it though.

How much does his leadership enhance his WAR and UZR, along with his teammates WAR and UZR? Does his leadership give an extra 1 point in WAR to each position player? Serious question.
 
Polaroid
That could be calculated but it wouldn't be a fair comparison. A poorly performing team would get high first round draft picks and, since they are on a bad team, the picks are more likely to make it to the majors. Compare that to say the Yankees, they don't get high first round draft picks and the quality of the roster means that it is a lot harder for those prospects to break into the majors.
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The other argument is that the Yankees and big market teams before the whole slotting arangement had more money to pay for players. Rick Porcello was probably the best pitcher in the 2006 draft but fell to the Tigers at the end of the 1st round.
 
Polaroid
Interesting game on Sunday for the Red Sox. They are currently without 3/5 of their opening day rotation (you could argue that it is actually 4/5 with John Lackey seemingly being on another planet) and Kyle Weiland is making his MLB debut.
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Tim Wakefield is bailing them out again. Love that guy. Top 5 favorite player of my lifetime.
 
FairWarning
yankees are about winning, not SABER stats.
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All teams are about winning although it may not seem that way if you're a fan of the Astros or Cubs. Using Saber stats (or more generally taking advantage of market disequilibriums) is what all teams should be doing to improve their chance of winning whether it be taking advantage of underpriced OBP/defense or actively scouting players in China/India. The Yankees have such a large revenue stream that they can get away from doing it yet still being a contender every season.

FairWarning
There is a place in sports for winners and leadership - two things that math cannot put a price on.
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You can definitely put a price on how much the Yankees throw away each year on bloated contracts to aging players.
 
tullamore
The other argument is that the Yankees and big market teams before the whole slotting arangement had more money to pay for players. Rick Porcello was probably the best pitcher in the 2006 draft but fell to the Tigers at the end of the 1st round.
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That's a point as well, although Rick Porcello was drafted out of high school in addition to demanding a large contract - the combination of that scared teams off rather than the money aspect.
 
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