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The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

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vast majority of players are looking for money first and foremost

this is aided by the hiring of greedy agents

it is quite rare for a player to take significantly less to sign with a certain team


after money, comes winning, weather, location, etc. but it's money before all else

when guys get re-signed, they're often getting market value or sometimes even more

see a-roid or jeter, both who got more than they were worth to stay with the bankees. also posada
 
fiveteamer
Is this true? Did he really turn down 200 mil over 9 years?
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That was the rumor and things like that tend to be pretty accurate. The Cards offered the years he was after but at a discounted salary - he wanted both the years and the money.

If Pujols is currently an 8 WAR a season player (we ignore 2011 as a blip and note he has posted 7.5+ WAR every season since 2002) then assuming:

1) The value of a win is $4.5 million in 2012
2) The value of a win increases by (a conservative) 5% a year
3) He remains an 8 WAR player for the first two years of the deal and then declines by 0.5 WAR each subsequent year

In that scenario, a $300M/9y contract will produce a surplus of just over $40 million for the club. Even if he is now only a 7 WAR player, and the same assumption hold then it's pretty much a break even for the club. But being worth $30 million a year and getting someone to pay you $30 million a year are two very different scenarios.
 
FairWarning
Again, why would he or Pujols want to go to the Cubs? This is a 65-win team with no future.
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Baseball Prospectus has them finishing with around 74 wins this year, Pujols replacing Pena is probably worth another 6-7 wins assuming he's back to his best in 2012. A few more tweaks and they would be a strong contender in 2012. And Pujols may just want to do a Beltre style one year deal to get his stock up - he rejected the $200/9yr from the Cardinals, he's not worth risking anything like that at the moment.
 
Huge fan of this thread.

The Machine does not seem like the type but if he went to the Cubs it would be a HUGH middle finger to STL. Just sayin.


Also, don't count the Marlins out IF Albert decides he just wants to do a 1 year deal to get his stock up. That would be right up Loria's alley to open up the new stadium.
 
Daft
Huge fan of this thread.

The Machine does not seem like the type but if he went to the Cubs it would be a HUGH middle finger to STL. Just sayin.


Also, don't count the Marlins out IF Albert decides he just wants to do a 1 year deal to get his stock up. That would be right up Loria's alley to open up the new stadium.
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How so? He's never been a big player in the free agency market.
 
Enigma
when guys get re-signed, they're often getting market value or sometimes even more
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This is generally only true in the case of premium talent. An average player produces around 2 WAR per year and there are so many players who can produce that output in any given season that teams shouldn't overpay for mediocre players (although they of course do). But a 7-8 WAR player is premium talent and every team in baseball are interested in them (even if they have no chance of actually signing them) and so the lack of supply for players of that quality can drive the price up higher than their actual worth.

When it comes to relief pitching, the market is crazy and relievers are regularly paid far much more than their worth to the team. The simple fact is that the level of innings pitched will never be enough for their production to get near to their salary. Take Rivera, he's on a $30m/2y contract (and this is not Yankee specific since the Red Sox offered him the same contract) but in his entire 14 year closing career he has only produced at a rate to justify $15m a year (in 2011 dollars) just one time.

Enigma
see a-roid or jeter, both who got more than they were worth to stay with the bankees. also posada
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Add Rivera as well. You see a pattern there? They've got money to burn and an obsession with players finishing their careers with the Yankees.
 
Good to see you more active P-Roid.
Glad your vacation is over/
Maybe now you will get around to that material your were gonna provide.
Remember that Gambling and Related Math for Dummies thing you all but promised?

MrX also was gonna do something as well but he opted to leave instead.

MonkeyFocker as well was gonna do an analysis of the math behind what Pavy did and while he hasn't honored that it's less important because he wasn't gonna dumb it down and only Durito, Enigma, Muddy, you and maybe Matty would have known if he was accurate or not.
 
MonkeyF0cker
That kind of proves my point though. You have to go back 8 years to find two semi-decent free agent signings.
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And also they have a $56m payroll this year and a hypothetical situation of getting 1 year of Pujols is going to cost around $30m. Is the new stadium going to generate enough revenue to justify the signing? If not, won't the fans be a little annoyed that all they get is one year of Pujols followed by a lack of spending and mediocrity?
 
Polaroid
Add Rivera as well. You see a pattern there? They've got money to burn and an obsession with players finishing their careers with the Yankees.
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rivera is at least kind of earning his money, even though relievers probably should never be paid that much

also, he's a different case, because other teams would have paid similar amounts.

You find me a team willing to pay Jeter what the Yankees gave him.

again, it's very rare to have a player take less than market value to re-sign

a lot of the ballyhooed "team keeps homegrown player" deals are where the team paid through the nose to keep the player, not that the player was willing to take less to stay
 
Enigma
rivera is at least kind of earning his money, even though relievers probably should never be paid that much

also, he's a different case, because other teams would have paid similar amounts.
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That was kind of my point since the Red Sox offered the same deal as the Yankees (although I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did it to make the Yankees overpay for him).

Enigma
You find me a team willing to pay Jeter what the Yankees gave him.
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Nobody would, aside from a mirage in 2009 (although it was a wonderful mirage) he hasn't performed at the elite level since 2006. The Yankees have money to burn and they start the fire every postseason. No other team would overpay Posada, Jeter or Rivera just to see them retire as a member of the team.

Enigma
again, it's very rare to have a player take less than market value to re-sign
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That depends on the definition of rare. When you're talking elite players, it's rare but Cliff Lee did it last off season. When it comes to everyday players, it happens regularly since the supply of them is generally higher than the demand.
 
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