Hooligans Sportsbook

The F0cker 500

Follow
wal66
Lots of qualifiers for Monday in college hoops but all but one game got chucked for some reason or another. As always though here are the ones that won't be played.

Elon +1.5 (outright)
Davidson -11.5
Wofford -7
Jackson St +6
Baylor +11
Weber St -13.

What's not surprising either with the game I am playing or the ones that qualified is the fact that not a single home team was selected by my program.


Monday Play:

NCAA BASKETBALL:

Norfolk St -3 :greencheck:


:goat:
Click to expand...

Got a better number lastnight than I would have gotten most of today but late money came in on the other (WRONG) side so I didn't beat the closer. So this ones goes full on Pavy-style where it don't matter as long as you pick a winner.


2013 Record: 28-21-2 (57%)
Tracking Profit: +$390
Actual Profit: +$78
 
Ok this is working so gonna keep making plays the night before till it don't work no mo.


First the games that were selected but chucked.

Tennessee +12
Wake Forest +8
Southern Illinois +6
Cincinnati -7
Wisconsin +11

Now for the finalist.


Tuesday's Plays:

Central Michigan -1.5
Notre Dame -5.5
ol' Miss -9.5


:pink:
 
Richmond's missing their best rebounder for 3 more weeks! Stay away!

Wally, you're way better than I'm doing at this, but ever think your system is road bias? 8 for 8 for Tuesday! Don't want to change a winning system but so many home winners out there too, don't know how your so successful in finding the winners out of the roadies! Great job!
 
wal66
Got a better number lastnight than I would have gotten most of today but late money came in on the other (WRONG) side so I didn't beat the closer. So this ones goes full on Pavy-style where it don't matter as long as you pick a winner.


2013 Record: 28-21-2 (57%)
Tracking Profit: +$390
Actual Profit: +$78
Click to expand...

There are a lot of times in NCAAB and NCAAF where I don't beat the closer but still have an edge.
 
It is road bias. I think (and it's only a guess) it's because I start with Sargarin which is only rating teams based on performance to date. Obviously lines come out adjusted for home court so my initial program doesn't have a good home court built in so most edge is spotted for the road teams. That is why I have so many filters to eliminate the majority of the programs suggestions.

I'm sure there are things that could be done better, differently or added but I'm doing what I can with what I got (in the brain department) so I deal with it Mr.M.

If you see me on a home team you can almost (98%) be certain that it's a personal play not a program play.
 
MonkeyF0cker
There are a lot of times in NCAAB and NCAAF where I don't beat the closer but still have an edge.
Click to expand...

you might have stats somewhere on this... its a fairly consistent trend for home teams(cbb especially) to take in the late action... if its a slight move, i dont worry about it... 2-3 pts against me late and i know im fucked:reallymad:
 
rito
Why don't you just add in a standard home cut advantage.
Click to expand...

I do for college football but even then it's a home brew and naturally different stadiums are tougher than others. For basketball though there are so many more teams available to wager on which means even more courts to try and give a value too. Naturally you know playing at Duke is way tougher than playing at Montana St. Also rims are different. I know that sounds silly but it's true. Some rims are more rigid than others and the ball reacts differently. Lighting is another huge factor when giving a factor to home courts.

It reduces my available options but I deal with it. I would rather miss a few home teams than to just go across the board with 3.5 to 4 points for home court advantage.
 
i have a lean on ole piss, myself...but will wait and see how their trip up to nashville goes... supposed to rain and ice over a huge part of the area in route...im sure they will leave early enough, but with 3-4 hour interstate delays yesterday, anything can happen...i wont be as excited about them if they have been stuck on the bus for 7-8 hours instead of the normal 4 it takes to get there from oxford.

sorry for throwing plays and stuff in the thread, wally...will try to do this in a pod thread or something like that..as not to clutter this one up...but you know we cant help hijacking shit around here :lol:
 
RayRay, keep posting here. I don't mind in fact have tried to get you posting more opinions/plays anyways so here is as good a place as any if you aren't concerned with traffic.

Durito, Duke is better than Montana St but you aren't saying there is no other variance by which you would credit Duke more heavily at home than Montana St at home other than one team being better are you?

Florida is a good team but they certainly don't have the same edge at home as does a Kentucky. We simply don't get as excited about basketball here. Our O'Connel Center has crappy seating and fans are uncomfortable plus we average 8500. Sure we'll get close to 20k for the big games but even then it's a much different crowd than in basketball crazed areas.

I guess I could use a generalized standard as a filter and then look closer though.

I dunno, it's all still a learning process and tweaks are part of the fun so maybe I'll try.
 
I agree with you Wally! More or less this should the GL College Hoops thread also! I luv CBB and even though not successful at picking more winners than losers, GL has it's share of quality CCB cappers here! Like to see their plays and local stuff like RR stated! Helps me maybe play or stay away from games!
 
wal66
I do for college football but even then it's a home brew and naturally different stadiums are tougher than others. For basketball though there are so many more teams available to wager on which means even more courts to try and give a value too. Naturally you know playing at Duke is way tougher than playing at Montana St. Also rims are different. I know that sounds silly but it's true. Some rims are more rigid than others and the ball reacts differently. Lighting is another huge factor when giving a factor to home courts.

It reduces my available options but I deal with it. I would rather miss a few home teams than to just go across the board with 3.5 to 4 points for home court advantage.
Click to expand...

Some of the HC advantages in smaller conferences are far greater than Duke's. MVC is one, mainly because of travel. Duke's HC advantage is built into the line, whereas smaller conferences are not.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.