Hooligans Sportsbook

The Durito 500

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Polaroid
That's a really bad challenge, Wal - hitting the equivalent of 60% at -110 is exactly the same as the Rasper challenge. Making it less plays than 500 increases your chances since there is a higher probability of cashing in on some positive variance but it doesn't take away from the fact that it is a bad thing to take on especially if it's at 1:1 odds.
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Pro's, explain something to me please.

If I were targeting a certain ROI (I actually do know what this is, no joke) I understand the -110 thing. I'm targeting a certain WIN RATIO though so how does a -110 line make a difference? I realize that at -110 the line may be different but I use a system that predicts the line anyways and if I don't have the required edge nessesary it's a non-play. I'm not being stubborn here but I truly don't see how a win percentage is effected the way I do this.

Yours Truly;
Sincerely Confused
 
wal66
Based on my formula both Boston and Tampa Bay rate as plays but due to the 16 innings last night I am fading my system. Chances are it will bite me in the ass.




Today's Plays:

Cincinnati/Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 (-105) NO PLAY
Chi-Sox/Kansas City OVER 9 (-115) LOSER
Baltimore Orioles +110 LOSER
NY Yankees -135 WINNER
Washington Nationals -115 WINNER

Plays are $100 to win $$95, $87, $110, $74 and $87.
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I am kicking the Cincy/Pitt TOTAL out. I don't want any discrepancies here and there was a pitching change. The line went up to 9 and it wouldn't have mattered for the win but the price changed so just throw it out.

2-2 (-$39)
Durito Record: 254-223-7 (+$1334)

16 To Go!
 
Good chance this is a sucker bet but I initially liked it so gonna go with it. The fact that I am personally betting it and the fact it wasn't readily available when I first went to grab it should be a sign to stay away.

Additional Play:

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110)

$100 to win $110.
 
wal66
Today's Plays:

Oakland/Detroit UNDER 8.5 (-105) LOSER

Philadelphia -1.5 is a play I want but no line available for it at my book yet.

Play is $100 to win $97.
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wal66
Good chance this is a sucker bet but I initially liked it so gonna go with it. The fact that I am personally betting it and the fact it wasn't readily available when I first went to grab it should be a sign to stay away.

Additional Play:

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110) WINNER

$100 to win $110.
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Got very lucky with the Phil's play but I'll take it.

40 games over .500 and +$2000 not looking good but still possible.

1-1 night (+$10)
Durito Record: 255-224-7 (+$1383)

14 To Go!
 
wal66
Pro's, explain something to me please.

If I were targeting a certain ROI (I actually do know what this is, no joke) I understand the -110 thing. I'm targeting a certain WIN RATIO though so how does a -110 line make a difference? I realize that at -110 the line may be different but I use a system that predicts the line anyways and if I don't have the required edge nessesary it's a non-play. I'm not being stubborn here but I truly don't see how a win percentage is effected the way I do this.

Yours Truly;
Sincerely Confused
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The win ratio is irrelevant to the lines you are getting (assuming you are placing bets at -110/-110). However, my point was that you were offering to hit 60% over X plays which is exactly the same challenge that Razor/Casper claimed he could win - hitting 60% over 500 plays betting $110 to win $100 on each bet would give a profit of $8000. My point was that it's just a really tall order to hit that figure over a large number of plays but if you can truly hit 60% consistently then you should be giving up your day job.
 
Polaroid
The win ratio is irrelevant to the lines you are getting (assuming you are placing bets at -110/-110). However, my point was that you were offering to hit 60% over X plays which is exactly the same challenge that Razor/Casper claimed he could win - hitting 60% over 500 plays betting $110 to win $100 on each bet would give a profit of $8000. My point was that it's just a really tall order to hit that figure over a large number of plays but if you can truly hit 60% consistently then you should be giving up your day job.
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Ok we are on the same page then.

The 60% Challenge would deserve more than 1:1 odds but I would offer it to Durito at that because he is one guy that is always willing to step up to the plate and offer a poster or boaster an opportunity to prove himself. I respect the guy for that.

Also, I don't claim (after last season) that I can hit 60% but I have in the past and like the challenge of doing it again. If I win this Durito 500 I would have won $1000 of Durito's dollars (in principle at least) and would be willing to make the next Challenge more difficult on my end to give him an opportunity to win back the portion I leave on the table.

It's all talk right now, just kicking around ideas and all. I still have to close this Challenge out first and try to reach those additional goal of 40 over and $2000+ first.
 
With 14 games to reach 500 plays if I can win this first game then I can't lose the challenge. Problem is I have a lifetime history of being a lousy closer.

Today's Play:

Boston Red Sox -125

$100 to win $80.


The RUN LINE is actually a qualifier but I chickened out. Also Pittsburgh is on a serious run but I like Cincy in early action. Like them so much I am not making them a Challenge play though.

I haven't ran numbers on the rest of the games but will later. If Boston loses I will be in chase mode later this afternoon.
 
wal66
With 14 games to reach 500 plays if I can win this first game then I can't lose the challenge. Problem is I have a lifetime history of being a lousy closer.

Today's Play:

Boston Red Sox -125 WINNER

$100 to win $80.


The RUN LINE is actually a qualifier but I chickened out. Also Pittsburgh is on a serious run but I like Cincy in early action. Like them so much I am not making them a Challenge play though.

I haven't ran numbers on the rest of the games but will later. If Boston loses I will be in chase mode later this afternoon.
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Figures that the RL in the Phil's game would have won as well as Cincy would have been a winner. I was scared and really wanted to play it close to the vest so I wimped out.

Ok so the Challenge has been officially won but I will continue it out the full 500 plays to see if I can reach those late additional goals.

1-0 (+$80)
Durito Record: 256-224-7 (+$1463)
 
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