Super Bowl Props and Projections

Didn't have enough time to prep these before they started coming out, but will add plays as I find them.

The key to betting lots of props is to not bet too many that are correlated. I assume the line is fair when making my projections.

Basic (and I mean basic yardage projections, but that's really all you need for props)

IND Pass 330 Yds
NO Pass 282.5 Yds

IND Rush 85.5 Yds
NO Rush 129.1 Yds

IND Comp 27.65
NO Comp 27

IND Pass Attp 42.7
NO Pass Attp 37.45

IND Int 1.4
NO Int .67

IND Sack 1.14
NO Sack .93


Some props I've bet so far:

Brees Under 300.5 -120 (Bodog) This is all over the place from 265.5 At bookmaker to the 300 at bookmaker. Most are around 275

Under 3.5 Sacks -250 (VIP)
Under 3.5 Sacks -260 (Sportsbook.com group)

These are -320/250 at Greek now. At 2.07 sacks even that would have value under.


D. Brees No Int. +150 at the greek best price

P. Manning Yes Int -140 at abc islands best price

Brees Over 24 Comp -120 at abc islands

Brees Over 34 Attps -130 at abc islands (both these beat available prices most books by a good margin)


...more later

 

[rito]

Game decided by exactly 3 pts No -500 greek
R. Bush Yes TD +160 greek (can't believe i bet this)
J. Addai Under 65.5 Rush Yds -115 greek
D. Brown Under 1.5 rec -200 greek
N. Orleans Over 379 Yards -105 greek
Manning Over 25 Comp -115 greek
Manning Over 36.5 Attp -120 greek
J. shockey no td -350 bodog
j. shockey no td -360 sportsbook
d. henderson no td -275 bodog
d. henderston no td -320 sportsbook
m. colston no td -155 bodog
r. meachem under 3 rec -145 sportsbook
d. henderson under 3.5 rec -115 sportsbook
d. brown over 4.5 Rush attp -125 sportsbook
j. adaai over 2.5 rec -120 sportsbook
p. manning over 305.5 pass yds -115 sportsbook
colts under 2 qb sacks -200 abc islands
Saints over 100.5 Rush Yds -105 abc islands
Colts under 100.5 Rush Yds -125 abc islands

 

[Bread]

To quote the late great English Mike....You're crackers!

Dass allotta props!

 

[rito]

that's nothing

 

[rito]

it'd be more if a certain message board moderator weren't running around teaching the whole world how to price and beat these

 

[Tron]

I love the "new and improved" durito

If we had a rep system I would rep your fvcking brains out right now. You would be so sore.

In all seriousness, great post sir.

 

[Dark Horse]

bump

 

[BaseballStars]

Thanks for this post! Promoted to the Home page.

 

[smitch124]

it'd be more if a certain message board moderator weren't running around teaching the whole world how to price and beat these

Do you really feel his info is making less bets with value available? Sure seems to me that more people are interested in bashing his losses than listening to what he is saying.

 

[Acid Joe]

LOL you mean most people are too lazy to read a book which teaches you hot to price and beat these? Complete with all the stat tables in the book and a excel spreadsheet on their web site to do everything? Geeze.

Standford Wong would be so disappointed.

 

[rito]

A few large ml's

Fair value:

No OT 93% aprox -1350
No Safety 95% -1900
No block punt 96.3% -2600

You can beat all these, but i'm not sure I'd lay no OT at -1200 which is about the best available. Sbetting has no safety -900, but gave me a max of $5 risk ... Ill dump whatever I can that I left in my accounts sunday morning on the no blocked punt and no safety probably. Both can be found around -1000

 

[Bread]

Big ole $lines.

 

[FreeFall]

Hello Durito,

For the lines involving yards how do you determine your edge or if it it's worth it taking a side?

Thanks,

FreeFall