Hooligans Sportsbook

Stock Picking - Straight Gambling

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MonkeyF0cker
Elliott Wave, moving averages, support levels, etc. are all pseudo-mathematical science fiction. Predictive capability by those means would completely contradict every aspect of the EMH. No different than picking off something like ATS trends in sports, you may have success temporarily, but that's almost certainly due to simple variance and random-walk noise. There are no viable long term arbitrage opportunities using such strategies. If it were profitable, not only would everyone be doing it due to its simplicity, but those very strategies REQUIRE that the rest of the market does not catch on. Profitability necessitates that you make your move(s) before the market adjusts to your predicted price point.
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Sharp post.
 
MonkeyF0cker
Elliott Wave, moving averages, support levels, etc. are all pseudo-mathematical science fiction. Predictive capability by those means would completely contradict every aspect of the EMH. No different than picking off something like ATS trends in sports, you may have success temporarily, but that's almost certainly due to simple variance and random-walk noise. There are no viable long term arbitrage opportunities using such strategies. If it were profitable, not only would everyone be doing it due to its simplicity, but those very strategies REQUIRE that the rest of the market does not catch on. Profitability necessitates that you make your move(s) before the market adjusts to your predicted price point.
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Well i guess I don't think the market is perfectly efficient. I do think it is very efficient and many securities laws (where most of my backround on this is) are promulgated under the assumption of the EMH. However, I know it not to be perfectly efficient as I have found and successfully executed option arbs before.
 
Not to mention there are litterally tens (maybe hundreds) of sophisticated prop shops and asset managers in town who are still teaching this stuff (Wave, SMA, ROI, Bollinger, technical trading shit) and continually posting profits. Now, they might not be doing as well as the HFT and Black Box guys, the ones who use the sophisticated algorithams, but you can't tell me the pre-dodd frank wings of these major institutions are banking on variance and noise.
 
You know how you see in movies and shit where all these brokers at this huge stock office and everyone is screaming to sell or buy and sell and buy, and some people are the phones with clients?

I always wanted to go do that for a day, looks like just for one day that could be fun.

Now I personally, when it comes to stocks, I will heed the advice of a broker, but I choose my own stocks, do my own research, and if I chose to invest, I like doing it independtely.
 
Boner_18
Not to mention there are litterally tens (maybe hundreds) of sophisticated prop shops and asset managers in town who are still teaching this stuff (Wave, SMA, ROI, Bollinger, technical trading shit) and continually posting profits. Now, they might not be doing as well as the HFT and Black Box guys, the ones who use the sophisticated algorithams, but you can't tell me the pre-dodd frank wings of these major institutions are banking on variance and noise.
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Eh? What prop shops in NYC are sophisticated (or even worth a shit) outside of Jane Street and FNYS? Both of those shops use advanced quant trading methodologies.

Describing a prop shop that teaches Elliott Wave, SMA, etc. as sophisticated is a bit of an oxymoron anyway.
 
There are plenty of legitimate uses for options. Just buying a call or put (like I'm doing with ford) is usually just straight degening, hence the thread title.

Options fees are typically 4-10$ for the first contract, .25-2$ for each successive in the same order (identical contacts).
 
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