Sportsbooks, Moneylines, Implied And Actual Probability

[kato]

for potato

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I have a problem with the concept actual probability=sportsbooks line. I would call it a working probability. Otherwise the implication is that given book has ALL the relevant information and uses it PERFECTLY. That's just never the case. There would be no reason try to build superior models or work on more effective ways to process info.

Maybe this is the problem which confuses Wally, as it leaves no room for the handicapper.

I guess that depends if you're talking about openers or closers and at which book(s). For any relevant book that's deemed even remotely efficient, they simply move on action after the open (outside of games taken off the board where there are roster, weather, coaching, etc. changes in which case a new, modified "opener" is subsequently put up). The line is far more market driven than book driven. The efficiency of the line/market is really the question more than anything.

 

[Archie]

But that implies the book set up the line correctly. What happens if the book set up the line wrong? Because in reality two teams will never play each other 10,000 times. And if it was feasible to play 10,000 times they will never play them with the exact weather conditions or identical lineups.

the point of the article is that by looking at the line by a book you can see what the %'s of a team winning are implied by the book. and that some books will be more off than others.

the implied probabilities will never equal the action outcomes. so in the above example, if you capped or modeled that the phils would win more than 67% of the time, it might be a good bet for you.

obviously a book's goal isn't really to put a line out that "predicts" the probability of the game's outcome as close as possible

 

[wal66]

P-Roid, it took some time but you are the first to keep their promise and deliver.

The wait was worth it because you broke it down and made it easy to follow. This is a great start and hopfully there will be more related pieces to follow by you or perhaps other informed Gamelive members.

A contributing community is a beautiful place.

 

[roguejuror]

Next up MrX. :thumbsup:

 

[Polaroid]

This is a great start and hopfully there will be more related pieces to follow by you or perhaps other informed Gamelive members.

I'll do a short follow up which hopefully won't take me as long to deliver this time.