Should you only wager when line movement agrees with you?

[Potato]

???

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

No. I have been burned many times by going against my stats just because the line moved out of my favor. You need to stay with what you believe and find the best value. That has been my Vegas motto.

 

[choo]

No. I have been burned many times by going against my stats just because the line moved out of my favor.

Do you have any way of knowing this isn't just luck?

to OP, it depends, imo.

 

[Mudcat]

I am guessing, by "line movement agrees with you," you mean the line on what you want has gotten worse since openers. In other words money is coming in on the side you like.

My answer is no, just the opposite - and I have done a fair bit of research to back this up. I seldom bet on a line that has gotten worse since openers. There is a small amount of movement I will tolerate but if it goes beyond that, it automatically becomes no bet.

 

[Potato]

Potato is referring to the opener to the closer.

EX: CRIS opens it at +3.5 and closes +4.5 at Pinny ... but you get +5.

 

[betplom]

Potato, if all your bills are paid and you have disposable income available then yes, go ahead.

 

[choo]

based on the context of your question, no the movement prior to your play should not matter.

 

[Mudcat]

Potato is referring to the opener to the closer.

EX: CRIS opens it at +3.5 and closes +4.5 at Pinny ... but you get +5.

I was misunderstanding your meaning. The large majority of my bets are on lines that have stayed the same or improved like that since openers. In other words, I usually bet against the money.

As I said before, I have a small allowance in some situations for lines that have gotten slightly worse. Very slight.



To clarify: I don't bet just because I see line movement, but if there is something I like, the line movement profile has to fit.

 

[Enigma]

No.

 

[rito]

No. I have been burned many times by going against my stats just because the line moved out of my favor. You need to stay with what you believe and find the best value. That has been my Vegas motto.

How much are you down lifetime?

 

[betplom]

How much are you down lifetime?

Durito, how is the trophy wife these days?

 

[rito]

Durito, how is the trophy wife these days?

She's good plom, she's at school right now.

 

[betplom]

She's good plom, she's at school right now.

You like it better when shes not home (during the day), right?

 

[illmatick]

How much are you down lifetime?

 

[Tron]

No

 

[rito]

You like it better when shes not home (during the day), right?

Of course.