Sharps! Kelly Help

[MonkeyF0cker]

yeah I was wrong I just re ran it in excel had my formula setup wrong. Still isn't that a rather high number to be risking on one play?

Yes. See the other posts for reasons why that may be.

Full Kelly is also rather aggressive. You might try fractional Kelly if full Kelly puts you out of your comfort zone. That said, it's not all too often that you find 10+% edges in full game major American sports markets.

 

[FreeFall]

Yes. See the other posts for reasons why that may be.

Full Kelly is also rather aggressive. You might try fractional Kelly if full Kelly puts you out of your comfort zone. That said, it's not all too often that you find 10+% edges in full game major American sports markets.

would you bet it at full kelly? I might stick with fractional for a while.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I bet 1/4 Kelly. I was far more aggressive with a smaller bankroll.

 

[kato]

that is a shitload of kelly

be careful

 

[rito]

Fully kelly is quite aggressive, even if your edge is accurate (and you arent gonna find 10% edges often on major markets like an nba tota --pinnys taking 50k on tomorrows game) be prepared for downswings of 50% of your roll. Fractional kelly will have less variance.

 

[birdmanjr]

.25 kelly betting too risk......risking say if kelly spits out 2% do 2% to win 1% on a -200

 

[reno cool]

had a long argument about usefulness of Kelly with everybody when I first started posting at sbr. The idea mentioned here earlier of betting a smaller percentage the bigger the bankroll is a good one.

 

[Tron]

Excellent thread. Good stuff boys.

 

[RayRay]

Venditto would say..."bunch of fucking pussy bets in this thread"...

its ALL FUCKING IN or NOTHING boyzzz!

 

[Matty]

that is a shitload of kelly

be careful

do some fractions and shit

 

[FreeFall]

how much money will I lose if I assume my quarter bets to be *4 for the game total and halfs to be *2 for a game total ? I'm trying to figure out my edge when I see flaws in quarters and halfs.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

A lot.

 

[FreeFall]

A lot.

do you have any recommendations for estimating those edges?

I see some books with totals off by a point a lot.

 

[FairWarning]

Venditto would say..."bunch of fucking pussy bets in this thread"...

its ALL FUCKING IN or NOTHING boyzzz!

DAMN STRAIGHT. I think I'm the only old-school capper here. I don't even know who the fuck Kelly is.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

do you have any recommendations for estimating those edges?

I see some books with totals off by a point a lot.

Build a database. That's your best alternative.

 

[FreeFall]

Build a database. That's your best alternative.

okay, yeah I'm gonna do that over summer. School has been getting in the way. What do you do after you find all the push frequencies for each quarter? how do I then change those to prices?