Hooligans Sportsbook

Serious gambling question - Pros only please (stay out Bread)

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Wallay I get that and I tend to agree. But I also believe that getting +110 each way allows a bookie a very wide margin of error throughout the season, especially if said bookie focuses on profiling its players and shades the obvious mainstream plays.

There aren't that many people who take this betting shit seriously, even those like Pavy who claim they do.

:grin:
 
Wally, the Inner10 are a bunch of friggin kooky backtalkers. You need a Captain Crunch Decoder Ring to figure out what the fukk's going on most of the time.

As for this topic, to be honest my thoughts were this: lines are soft at the beginning and that's why I can make a bit of cash by just betting on what I think are the better lines. Then when I start getting a bit more serious I've finally been limited twice on NCAAF and NBA TTs. But even if I were to switch books now, I'd be fukked because things are getting more difficult as far as picking 'winners' are concerned since I'm not a modeler. And this should be when modelers are starting to hit it big I think. But I'm trying to figure out that gap between how they take advantage of soft early lines, when their models won't be efficient, until the time when they do. Previous year's data won't be all that helpful due to roster changes, etc... but there's obviously money to be made. So is the ultimate goal to be a mix of a 'capper' and a 'modeler'? Because I know this beating the closing line horseshit isn't working right now from what I'm seeing.

Sometimes I wish I was less of an actual gambler and more of just a pick a cute guy and bet on their team kind of girl. This shit can hurt your brain after awhile.
 
Shari I have never developed a model that tracked season long stats so I can't tell how efficient the model becomes later in the season. What I look for is angles. Like for example in college football I look for opening lines at the numbers 3 and 7. In soccer I look for overs when a top 5 team is facing a bottom 5 team in the tables on the road etc. Looking for angles requires match less work with statistics that need quite some time into the season to develop a good model at which point the books have already adjusted their own models for setting up opening lines.
 
Pavy you have no idea how much you're up or down lifetime nor do you know your win% or ROI. Pavy you're not even a gambler. Pavy you bet your disposable income as a form of recreation.

Pavy you're smarter than the lot of us.
 
Matty
Pavy you have no idea how much you're up or down lifetime nor do you know your win% or ROI. Pavy you're not even a gambler. Pavy you bet your disposable income as a form of recreation.

Pavy you're smarter than the lot of us.
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I know for a fact I'm up in my lifetime as a gambler. I never borrowed money to gamble or took car title loans. And yes you are right. I'm a recreational gambler. But that doesn't mean I don't know what I'm doing or I'm less capable of winning than the people who claim to do it for a living.
 
Shari, pick the cute guy?

Just once I want a woman to say and mean, "I'm gonna get the fattest most homely looking fucktard here and take him home and bang his brains out". Always about the "cute" guy and "fancy boys" even when given an example.
 
wal66
Matty, I have no facts but it would be difficult to argue that early in the season the lines can be much more off due to new players with unproven results, new coaches of staff members. This is probably more critical in college than the pro's but I am sure it still weighs in there as well especially with newly drafted players that start immediately.

As the season progresses and odds makers get a feel for what the rosters truly are they it can be assumed that naturally they are sharper.
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I'm not sure how much I buy this. I know that in some situations - such as early season college hoops totals - books are reticent to post lines. I assume that must be because they get beat and there really are some players who have a superior model to the linesmakers.

But I see early season lines on pretty much everything else being posted routinely so the books must be making their money.

Everyone - bettor and linesmaker alike - are facing the same uncertainties. Unproven players with unproven results are just as unproven to all parties. The linesmaker calls on a huge body of actuarial-type data to fit the situation like they always do. Bettors do what bettors always do, applying models/knowledge/instincts.

Here's one thing I know: MANY bettors are VERY prone to misinterpreting their results. Someone has a hot early season - or even a couple in a row - and they start thinking they know more than the linesmaker and start crowing that early season lines are softer. In fact it is just a natural aberration and just as many people with just as much knowledge are doing worse than usual - and it all evens out in the long run with the books making their profit on vig.




I am just speaking off the cuff here. I don't have the data. I would be curious to see stats on if books do worse in the early season than later.



I guess it depends how you define sharp. By my definition and based on the way I sort data, early season lines are the sharpest and things loosen up as the season goes on.
 
Mudcat
Here's one thing I know: MANY bettors are VERY prone to misinterpreting their results. Someone has a hot early season - or even a couple in a row - and they start thinking they know more than the linesmaker and start crowing that early season lines are softer. In fact it is just a natural aberration and just as many people with just as much knowledge are doing worse than usual - and it all evens out in the long run with the books making their profit on vig.
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Exactly my belief too.
 
Mudcat
I'm not sure how much I buy this. I know that in some situations - such as early season college hoops totals - books are reticent to post lines. I assume that must be because they get beat and there really are some players who have a superior model to the linesmakers.

But I see early season lines on pretty much everything else being posted routinely so the books must be making their money.

Everyone - bettor and linesmaker alike - are facing the same uncertainties. Unproven players with unproven results are just as unproven to all parties. The linesmaker calls on a huge body of actuarial-type data to fit the situation like they always do. Bettors do what bettors always do, applying models/knowledge/instincts.

Here's one thing I know: MANY bettors are VERY prone to misinterpreting their results. Someone has a hot early season - or even a couple in a row - and they start thinking they know more than the linesmaker and start crowing that early season lines are softer. In fact it is just a natural aberration and just as many people with just as much knowledge are doing worse than usual - and it all evens out in the long run with the books making their profit on vig.




I am just speaking off the cuff here. I don't have the data. I would be curious to see stats on if books do worse in the early season than later.



I guess it depends how you define sharp. By my definition and based on the way I sort data, early season lines are the sharpest and things loosen up as the season goes on.
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You talking about the Miami Heat Mudcat?
 
Muddy, I should've clarified that I'm dealing strictly with Aussie books and Betfair at the moment. With Aussie books, they pull their number for MLs and the spread from offshore books I'm sure, but for things like team totals and various other props, oh and tennis, they're just basically pulling them out of their ass as far as I can tell since they're so wacked out. I fully accept that's the only reason I've managed to have success during the time I've been living here as far as sports that I don't pay a significant amount of attention to are concerned.
 
Shari - God bless the people who can beat the early season lines, I can't. The lines do tighten up, but the info is better too. In the NFL right now, I fade teams and not play on teams. Teams that have poor defenses will not get better, nor will teams with loads of injuries. Also look for veteran teams who had high expectations and fell short (Minn,Tenn now, GB and Jets soon). Also beware of must-win teams. Line is bumped-up and people will still bet them, driving it up more.
 
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