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Serious gambling question - Pros only please (stay out Bread)

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Oksana

Oksana

zig a zig ah
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So I'm not a modeler or anything of the sort nor will I ever be. But I've asked a question to a few people I know off the forums who I consider to be quite with it when it comes to betting and I'm curious as to what you guys think.

I've heard many people say that lines sharpen up in sports as the season goes on and it takes awhile in a new season for their models to become fully functional. Whether this is true or not, I'm not sure as this isn't relevant in the main sport I bet and to be honest, I'm just winging it in other sports for the most part.

1. Is this in fact true?

2. And if this is true, do you still bet these sports while your models aren't even fully functional yet or do you wait until X point and then invest your money at that time?

The guys I know say they wait and focus on other sports until they're confident with the data they've collected as they see it as just pissing money away, whether they lose, break even or make a little in the long run. Their take is that this money could be better put to use elsewhere for a higher ROI instead of merely betting crap for the hell of it as the end result will be the same as far as the information they glean is concerned. Other people I've seen on forums obviously don't. Just curious. :thankyou:
 
I disagree with most of that, Shari. It is correct that lines tend to get sharper as the season progresses for the most part. Conversely, some of the greatest value is in lines at the beginning of the season. People who are modeling based on only the current season of data aren't likely to have long term profitable models anyway. It would be quite difficult to achieve any statistically significant samples with merely a portion of a season to work with and the methods that are generally used by people who wait (usually regression or pythagorean using team data) make it difficult to account for things such as trades, injuries, suspensions, reduced playing time, etc.
 
Ain't this a fine how do you do.

I ask gambling related questions all the time and attempt to extract knowledge from guys like MonkeyFocker and Shari get's him to open the vault?

I heard rumors of Shari finally showing a pic (couldn't find it myself) seems MonkeyFocker found it and was highly impressed.
 
wal66
Ain't this a fine how do you do.

I ask gambling related questions all the time and attempt to extract knowledge from guys like MonkeyFocker and Shari get's him to open the vault?

I heard rumors of Shari finally showing a pic (couldn't find it myself) seems MonkeyFocker found it and was highly impressed.
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yep, I seen one of the pics and she is a fine looking women.
Wally, she's a keeper
Hi, Shari:xpansive:
 
Pavy
Shari do you model tennis? And if you do what do you consider as start of the season since they play all year long?
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Not really. Or at least what I do I wouldn't dare put the name 'model' to because it's just my rinky dink way of doing things and I'm sure someone decent would think it's a complete joke. I just collate stats and then try to see if I can guesstimate how matches will play out based on the info I've collected as far as serving %, errors, etc... even if I don't bet money on that particular one. Once I've come up with a decent strike rate with a particular player then I start to bet them and at a larger amount. It's hard though because there are so many other factors to take into consideration when dealing with an individual sport as opposed to a team one. Or at least I've found that to be the case anyway. Thankfully with Facebook, Twitter, etc... that stuff helps to get an idea of where a player's at so that's a good thing. This will be my 7th full year of collecting info but because I still haven't mastered the art of when to raise and lower my bets, I seem to always make around the same amount each year give or take a few bucks.

I've tried the whole chasing steam, beating the closing number thing and it honestly just didn't work over a longer period of time in tennis. At least not for me. But I start my little thing every Jan with the Aus Open. New year, fresh start and the players have had their 'official' break. I'm sure there's a much better way for me to go about things - and that's what I was trying to figure out by stalking the ThinkTank when I took my break from here - but tennis seems to be a bit of unchartered territory for a lot of people so I'm just continuing to wing it.
 
With all sports I bet, I don't start until we are about 15% into the season. (i.e. I pass the first 2 games in NFL, NCAAF, ~10 games in NBA, NHL, ~20 games in MLB).

That's what works with the way I do things. I could speculate on the reason but the truth is I just don't know. My systems don't kick in until some patterns are established and it is true of everything.

I am always looking for angles on early season - I swear some day I will come up with one for something - but as of right now I have absolutely nothing.



As for end of season, it is less definite. I can theoretically bet right to the end of the seasons but I usually peter out when teams start clinching/being eliminated from playoff spots and I am sensing that motivations are changing. And I never bet post season in any sport.
 
Blitty
My cats breath smells like cat food
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A GF *and* a cat now. Blitty WTF? I worry about you.

As for the topic at hand, I would love for someone to show hard proof of that "tightening" of the lines as the season progresses. Gamblers are a fokken superstitious lot and they'll do/assume a lot of things in the name of psychological comfort.

(This thread is as good as any to remind MrX that he stiffed me some information. :mudcat:)
 
Matty, I have no facts but it would be difficult to argue that early in the season the lines can be much more off due to new players with unproven results, new coaches of staff members. This is probably more critical in college than the pro's but I am sure it still weighs in there as well especially with newly drafted players that start immediately.

As the season progresses and odds makers get a feel for what the rosters truly are they it can be assumed that naturally they are sharper.
 
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