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Rough two weeks

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djiddish98

djiddish98

The Dunk
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Jun 6, 2010
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The past two weeks for gambling on MLB have been vicious.

I've made 167 bets. Based on my odds, my win % should have been 47.37% (assuming 0 EV). I haven't tracked all the edges for each bet (I have, but I've been deleting my data a lot because I'm still working on presentation and I'm always adding new variables), but based on my current setup, I'm averaging an edge of ~ .5% for this sample, which is pretty conservative estimate.

Actual results have been a winning % of 38.79% - hysterically bad.

These runs do happen. Best to grin and bear it.

If edge bettors don't mind sharing, what is your minimum edge to bet? I've been trying to fiddle around and find the right combination of Edge and frequency.

Since I bet steam, if I sit around and wait for 3% edges to pop up on my screen (for MLB at least), then I'm not going to have many bets, which is not only boring, but won't really get me anywhere. However, I take every positive edge that comes my way, I'll most likely settle at 0 EV.

I'm going to take things a little more conservatively over the next two weeks, but any feedback would be great.

Thanks
 
I'm not as qualified as others here to talk about the math stuff, but I can attest that wagering this year has been streaky as fuck. I've had month-long spells lately showing triple-digit ROIs, only to abruptly hit a tailspin and drag it all the way back to 4-5%. I mean, it's still good to be making money overall, but this year it just seems like the markets go "retrograde" (astronomical term for when the planets appear to move backwards) and everything is turned on its head only to just as abruptly return to normal.
 
RogueScholar
I'm not as qualified as others here to talk about the math stuff, but I can attest that wagering this year has been streaky as fuck.
Click to expand...

Alot of people I talk to who are "specialist" in various sports are all saying the same things to be honest, no idea why though - apart from in baseball where scoring is only down because they've put a lid on steroids. They need to make that shit legal again.
 
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