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Once Again Sports Are Foxed

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CASPERWAIT$
www.espn.com

Sources: Gambling ring also tied to college hoops

The gambling ring being investigated for two NBA betting cases also was involved in unusual wagering on at least three men's college programs, sources told ESPN.
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I told you all
The proof just keeps pouring in
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CASPERWAIT$
NCAAB: Houston Christian/Nicholls State OVER 143.5 -110
NCAAB: Colgate -3.5 -110
NBA: Sacramento OVER 108.5 -110
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On these three are we thinking no 🦊 or are we factoring in potential foxing?
 
Vegas Dave
So your handicapping strategy is guessing how the fix will play out? Can you explain on these three? Not being sarcastic, genuinely curious how this works.
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for me it's just built into the variance and risk

think of betting sports side/total like betting black vs red in roulette. a high percentage of time it's on the up and up, but sometimes it lands on green... that's the small risk of betting on a fixed game in the wrong direction and can then be costly. because I might smash my TV or keyboard in the FOX thread
 
Vegas Dave
So your handicapping strategy is guessing how the fix will play out? Can you explain on these three? Not being sarcastic, genuinely curious how this works.
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Yes exactly.

Colgate is an under the radar team. Playing on the road and average at best. Team they are playing is pretty much equal across the board, yet they are underdogs? Doesn’t compete. Colgate wins.

HC/NS game. Neither team are offensive juggernauts. Last games out, both teams played in games that scored less than 143.5 and both were unders. Total seems high. That means the over hits.

Sacramento missed out on covering the over by 1.5 points last game out where they had 5 opportunities to cover it. They shit the bed in the 4th. This game, even w the trade today they cover the OVER.
 
Archie
for me it's just built into the variance and risk

think of betting sports side/total like betting black vs red in roulette. a high percentage of time it's on the up and up, but sometimes it lands on green... that's the small risk of betting on a fixed game in the wrong direction and can then be costly. because I might smash my TV or keyboard in the FOX thread
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Yeah, this makes sense to me. Vast majority of games are "normal". If funny business is occasionally afoot, it will sometimes be in your favor and sometimes against you... should be a wash in the long run, so nothing to worry about really.

The Casper school of thought, that everything is 🦊'd top to bottom across the board on all sports, is harder for me to wrap my head around from a betting perspective. He just explained essentially he goes contrarian (betting stuff where the lines seem funny because that could indicate fix is in), but seems to constantly be on the wrong side of the fix.

So if every game is fixed, and fixed in a completely unpredictable matter that makes long term winning impossible, I don't really understand the appeal of betting on sports.
 
NCAA game was fixed
ncaa game was fixed
final total was 142
 
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