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Non-US Basketball Props

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Boner_18

Boner_18

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Do rebounds fit a poisson distribution?

Red Star Belgrade v. Olimpia Milano
Z. Leday u5.5 rebounds -165
S. Shields u4.5 rebounds -165
F. Petrusev u5.5 rebounds -140
J. Bolomboy o7.5 rebounds -140
N. Kalinic o3.5 rebounds +100

Fenerbahce v. Asvel Villeurbanne
B. Colson u4.5 rebounds -140
N. Sako o5.5 rebounds +120
J. Lauvergne u5.5 rebounds -155
M. Guduric o2.5 rebounds -118

Alba Berlin v. Baskonia Vitoria
D. McCormack u5.5 rebounds +100
Y. Wetzell u4.5 rebounds +100

Virtus Bologna v. Real Madrid
F. Campazzo o2.5 rebounds -140
T. Shengelia u5.5 rebounds -118
 
Sorry, those were all for 3/13. Will grade when they're complete.

For 3/14
Olympiacos v. Panathinaikos
H. Hernangomez u7.5 -118
S. Vezenkov u6.5 -105
C. Osman u3.5 -118
N. Williams-Goss u2.5 -165
K. Sloukas u2.5 -118

Bayern Munich v. Anadolu Efes
J. Voigtmann u5.5 +100
E. Bryant o3.5 -118

Barcelona v. Partizan
T. Satoransky u3.5 +110


Might add some Bundesliga
 
Boner_18
Red Star Belgrade v. Olimpia Milano
Z. Leday u5.5 rebounds -165 :greencheck:
S. Shields u4.5 rebounds -165 :redx:
F. Petrusev u5.5 rebounds -140 :redx:
J. Bolomboy o7.5 rebounds -140 :redx:
N. Kalinic o3.5 rebounds +100 :greencheck:

Fenerbahce v. Asvel Villeurbanne
B. Colson u4.5 rebounds -140 :greencheck:
N. Sako o5.5 rebounds +120 :redx:
J. Lauvergne u5.5 rebounds -155 :redx:
M. Guduric o2.5 rebounds -118 :greencheck:

Alba Berlin v. Baskonia Vitoria
D. McCormack u5.5 rebounds +100 :greencheck:
Y. Wetzell u4.5 rebounds +100 :greencheck:

Virtus Bologna v. Real Madrid
F. Campazzo o2.5 rebounds -140 :greencheck:
T. Shengelia u5.5 rebounds -118 :redx:
Click to expand...

3/14 adding Bundesliga
SC RASTA Vetcha v. Ratiopharm Ulm
K. Jallow u6.5 -118
J. Jessup o3.5 -118



3/13 -.12 units
YTD -.12 units
 
Boner_18
Sorry, those were all for 3/13. Will grade when they're complete.

For 3/14
Olympiacos v. Panathinaikos
H. Hernangomez u7.5 -118 :greencheck:
S. Vezenkov u6.5 -105 :redx:
C. Osman u3.5 -118 :greencheck:
N. Williams-Goss u2.5 -165 :greencheck:
K. Sloukas u2.5 -118 :redx:
J. Voigtmann u5.5 +100 :redx:
E. Bryant o3.5 -118 :redx:
T. Satoransky u3.5 +110 :greencheck:
K. Jallow u6.5 -118 :redx:
J. Jessup o3.5 -118 :greencheck:
Click to expand...
3/14 5-5 -.74 units
YTD 12-11 -.86 units
 
Boner_18
3/15 - all rebounds still

C. Horton u5.5 +100 :redx:
P. Fleming u4.5 -165 :greencheck:
A. Konontsuk o5.5 -140 :redx:
Click to expand...

3/15 1-2 -1.39 units
YTD 13-13 -2.25 units

3/16
German
Heidelberg v. Gottingen
D. Wiggins u9.5 -118
R. Mikesell o5.5 -118

Wurzburg v. Chemnitz
J. Garrett u7.5 -118
O. Nkamhoua u5.5 -118

Fraport v. Ludwigsburg
J. Simon o6.5 -118

Lowen Braunschweig v. ALBA
S. Fru u6.5 -118

Italian
Varese v. Reggiana
J. Hands u4.5 -140

Napoli v. Bologna
L. Tote u6.5 -118

Venezia v. Vanoli Cremona
T. Owens u7.5 -155
J. Parks o5.5 -118
 
Boner_18
3/17
K. Jallow u6.5 -118 :redx:
Click to expand...
3/17 0-1 -1 unit
YTD 18-19 -4.2 units

3/22
Australia
Illawarra v. Melbourne
D. Days u6.5 -118
W. Hickey u5.5 -140
M. Lee u6.5 -140
J. White o6.5 -140

Italy
Trieste v. Bologna
A. Zizic u5.5 -105

Bundesliga
MHP Riesen v. EWE Baskets
Y. Polas u5.5 -118
A. Konontsuk o5.5 -118

Ulm v. Fraport
J. Jessup o3.5 -140
K. Jallow u6.5 +100


French Bball
Cholet v. La Rochelle
T. Digbeu u 4.5 -118
B. Vautier o4.5 - 125

Limoges v. Bourg
A. Nelson u5.5 -135
 
Assuming rebounds fit a poisson distribution. Take player average and multiply by the inverse of opposing team average divided by league average. That's expected rebounds. Then calculate probability of the o/u based on poisson and bet it if the books lime is better by 20% or more.

Very likely my model is trash. I think this would work on opening line for player props and might try it on NHL shots next season. I think I'm getting international rebound lines after they've been heavily adjusted by books reacting to early action.
 
Boner_18
3/22
D. Days u6.5 -118 :greencheck:
W. Hickey u5.5 -140 :redx:
M. Lee u6.5 -140 :greencheck:
J. White o6.5 -140 :greencheck:
A. Zizic u5.5 -105 :greencheck:
Y. Polas u5.5 -118 :redx:
A. Konontsuk o5.5 -118 :greencheck:
J. Jessup o3.5 -140 :redx:
K. Jallow u6.5 +100 :redx:
T. Digbeu u 4.5 -118 :greencheck:
B. Vautier o4.5 - 125 :redx:
A. Nelson u5.5 -135 :redx:
Click to expand...
3/22 6-6 -1.08 units
YTD 24-25 -5.28 units

3/23
France
Monaco v. ASVEL
T. Maledon o3.5 -118
A. Diallo u4.5 -165

St. Quentin v. Nanterre
J. Tillman u4.5 -118
D. Olejniczak o6.5 -118

Italy
Reggio Emilia v. Venezia
C. Winston u2.5 +100
J. Parks u6.5 -140

Scafati v. Napoli
L. Tote u6.5 -118

Milano v. Trento
S. Shields u3.5 -165

Germany
Bamberg v. Heidelberg
F. Stanic o6.5 +100

Mitteldeutscher v. Braunschweig
T. Mitchell o3.5 -118
 
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