Hooligans Sportsbook

New York Jets are going to be a MAJOR Philosophy Pick this weekend

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    56 Replies •
  • Views 5,906 Views
Follow
Mudcat
I'm not familiar with Philosophy Picks. Is that something along the lines of Rubberband Plays?

Is there a Rubberband frog?
Click to expand...

I'm not exactly sure what a Rubberband play is, so I couldn't tell you.

Philosophy picks generally fall into one of two categories, either:

1. Factoring in heavily the emotional aspects to a game, motivation, etc when the stats dictate otherwise.
2. Factoring in a line that looks way off, is getting bet 90% on the other side, reverse line movement, etc.

Or, in some cases I love like this game, BOTH.

108 - 67 - 6 (61.7%) all time against the spread with these, dating back to 2005. 2006 was the only year I finished worse than 58% at 24-22-2, and looking back I think I was a little too lenient in calling some games philosophy picks considering the amazing season I had with them in '05. Not including 2006, I'm hitting 65%.... but then, that sounds kind of tout-y. But just saying, I'm pretty confident with these.
 
Mudcat
Kinda sorry I brought it up.
Click to expand...

Why, not happy with the answer?

I understand that it could all be just a nice standard deviation based on a small sample size that will trickle back towards 50% sooner or later. I'm not claiming to be a world beater or that I have some magical system that can't lose. I'm strictly stating the facts; I'm confident in these because I've done well with them so far.

http://www.davesdime.com/archive/nfl-newsletter/ - Here's a copy of every single newsletter I've written over the last five years. It's all there.
 
Vegas Dave
Two, I can tell you from experience, when you pick against what looks to be an obvious winner and get crushed, it is not a "win" and a "that Dave, he's so ballsy". It's "wow, what a fucking idiot".
Click to expand...

:biglaugh: Been there. :wah:

And please don't let Herman chase you off. Common Davey, it's Herman! You can slap him around as you wish.
 
Vegas Dave
I understand that it could all be just a nice standard deviation based on a small sample size
Click to expand...

Especially that 24-22-2 year that you think had something to do with you being "lenient". Common Davey, it's not even 50 picks. 61.8% over 180 picks is a pretty solid headstart to a good sample size though.

(If you care to know I evaluate my performance in blocks of 500 bets, which is the smallest "unit" I can use to break down my spreadsheet and still observe some consistency.)
 
Matt Rain
Especially that 24-22-2 year that you think had something to do with you being "lenient". Common Davey, it's not even 50 picks. 61.8% over 180 picks is a pretty solid headstart to a good sample size though.

(If you care to know I evaluate my performance in blocks of 500 bets, which is the smallest "unit" I can use to break down my spreadsheet and still observe some consistency.)
Click to expand...

It's a big plus that it was winning every year individually. I would guess the good record is due to more than randomness. I tend to think the lines are shaded in the direction of Dave's philosophy.
 
Herman
durito you are just showing off with that post

sharp

patriots -1 -113 pinny opener
Click to expand...

dude even you could have nailed these sportsbetting game of the year lines on their parlay card. i don't know shit about what lines should be on nfl games and i did. pats +4.5, giants +10, titans -2 . i have 2 and 3 game parlays on those.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.