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Need help from math types

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Excluding goalies, unsigned free agents (Ville Leino), players who have left the NHL (Rostislav Kesla) and those who've missed more than half the season due to injury (Stephen Weiss), I get:

Top 5 Overpaid in 2013/14
1. Dany Heatley (12G 16A, $7.5M cap hit)
2. David Clarkson (5G 6A, $5.25M cap hit)
3. Marian Gaborik (11G 19A, $7.5M cap hit)
4. Eric Staal (21G 40A, $8.25M cap hit)
5. Brian Campbell (7G 30A, $7.14M cap hit)

Top 5 Underpaid in 2013/14
1. Jaden Schwartz (25G 31A, $830k cap hit)
2. Ondrej Palat (23G 26A, $580k cap hit)
3. Ryan Johansen (33G 30A, $870k cap hit)
4. Joe Pavelski (41G 38A, $4M cap hit)
5. Gabriel Landeskog (26G 39A, $925k cap hit)
 
If I was to analyze this very seriously, I would have some objection to the concept using goals-versus-salary as a primary measurement (which I think is what I am understanding?) Primary example being Ovechkin who of course gets his share of goals - but is a stunningly massive pantload in the plus/minus department.

Floaters and goal sucks ---> not Mudcat's favorite thing to have on his team.
 
I don't claim to have a fine understanding of GVS 2 hours after finding out about it, but I know that the stat is based on another one, Tom Awad's GVT (Goals Vs Threshold), which sounds a lot more complicated than just taking goals into account. Goalies are assigned a GVT value so I'm not sure what's going on. Someone misnamed the stat, looks like.

http://www.diebytheblade.com/2012/12/7/3411686/sab-re-metrics-what-is-gvt

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) is a stat developed by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus in July of 2009. Overall, it is quite a complicated statistic; one that Tom Awad explained in three separate articles (1, 2, and 3) when it was first introduced. To be brief, the stat itself was meant to do two things:

1. A way to compare various players in the NHL, independent of position

2. A way to quantify the importance of defense

What this means is that that there were already ways of comparing goalies (GAA and SV%) and comparing offensive players (goals, assists), but there was no way to say how much better a goaltender was than another player on the ice. Also, we always knew that good defensive players existed (i.e. Jay McKee), but there was no good* information that could be used to compare those players to other defensemen and offensivemen. Out of those predicaments, the GVT stat was born.

To compare various players, Awad developed the stat to differentiate the amount of goals a certain player is worth when compared to a replacement level player (the threshold). In this definition, a replacement level player would be one that is a 13th forward or 7th defenseman on a NHL team; in other words, a fringe NHL player. This is quite similar to the VORP and WAR statistics in baseball, where they also find a player's value by comparing their "worth" against that of another replacement-level player.

It should also be important to note that the GVT stat a summation of three separate variables, the offensive GVT (OGVT), the defensive GVT (DGVT) and the shootout GVT (SGVT). The latter variable has only been used since 2005, since that is the first season a shootout was used and could be quantified. The calcuation of each of these variables will be discussed more in the next article.

To finish off today's overview, I added on Tom Awad's general explanation of GVT that he included in his original 2009 article. I will add his links, as well as other interesting uses of GVT to a definition article in the future. If you have any specific questions on the stat, just ask below.


GVT is measured in goals. This makes it a convenient unit that hockey fans are already comfortable with.

GVT compares hockey players of all positions and over any period of time.

GVT only uses statistics that lead directly to goals. You cannot incorporate goaltender wins into GVT, because they are not a measurement of goals prevented. However, if you can rationally explain what are the odds of a faceoff win (or loss) leading to a goal or goal against, it would be possible to incorporate faceoff wins and losses into GVT, though I have not done so.

GVT has built-in accounting. The sum of player GVTs on a team equals that team's GVT plus the replacement level. This is essential, as player statistics often come with caveats. Kovalchuk scored 43 goals, but he doesn't play defense and his team isn't good. This makes it much easier to measure "how good would this team be replacing player A with player B?" It is also essential in that player success is correlated with team success, which after all is the entire point of the sport.

GVT automatically normalizes for the strength of the league. When looking at player statistics from different eras or different leagues, it is often difficult to know if a player was good or not. For example, for the last few years in the Czech Extraliga, a save percentage of 0.920 has been average or below average, while in the NHL today a save percentage of 0.920 is pretty good, and in the NHL 20 years ago it was unheard of. Similarly, a 50-goal season in 1982 was less impressive than a 40-goal season today. GVT takes all of this into account, giving you a single number that doesn�t need any further interpretation.
 
Muddy, you'll be happy to learn that Ovechkin's GVS over the last 6 seasons ranks him very near the bottom.

Dead last is Rick Dipietro, followed by Scott Gomez, Dany Heatley, Nikolai Khabibulin, Ed Jovanovski and Vincent Lecavalier.

Ovechkin is about the 50th most overpaid player (out of 1800+) over the last 6 seasons, and the 25th most overpaid in 2013/14 alone.
 
Matty
Yah, writing it for my employer.

So I looked at Rob Vollman's spreadsheet for the last 6 seasons and I isolated the 2013/14 season. The thing with his formula is that it tends to have a lot of goalies at both ends, i.e. it seems to put a lot of weight on goalie performance. Disagreeing with that is way beyond my pay grade but it makes for a rather boring article. So I'm just getting rid of goalies.

Excluding goalies, unsigned free agents (Ville Leino) and players who have left the NHL (Rostislav Kesla), I get this:

Top 5 Overpaid in 2013/14
1. Dany Heatley (12G 16A, $7.5M cap hit)
2. David Clarkson (5G 6A, $5.25M cap hit)
3. Marian Gaborik (11G 19A, $7.5M cap hit)
4. Stephen Weiss (2G 2A, $4.9M cap hit)
5. Eric Staal (21G 40A, $8.25M cap hit)

Top 5 Underpaid in 2013/14
1. Jaden Schwartz (25G 31A, $830k cap hit)
2. Ondrej Palat (23G 26A, $580k cap hit)
3. Ryan Johansen (33G 30A, $870k cap hit)
4. Joe Pavelski (41G 38A, $4M cap hit)
5. Gabriel Landeskog (26G 39A, $925k cap hit)



Does this look reasonable? It looks pretty good to me.

BTW bacon will be happy to know that over the last 6 seasons, the player with the best GVS average is his franco-Ontarian sweetheart Claude Giroux. (His rookie contract is a big part of the reason he comes out on top.)

:boxcleanersdaddy:
Click to expand...

Why not expand on it and include dmen. Maybe by position. May be tough though as players move around the lineup (positionally).
 
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