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Need help from math types

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Matty

Matty

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I'm writing a piece about the 5 most overpaid/5 most underpaid NHL players, and I would like to come up with a formula that I'll apply to 2013-2014 stats and salaries to identify the 10 players.

This is not meant to be serious, although I would like to pretend that my Science is superior to that of previous efforts to identify overpaid/underpaid athletes.

How complicated is the WAR stat in baseball? Couldn't there be something similar done for hockey?

MrX? MonkeyF0cker? Dunder?

Halp?
 
I'm thinking this may have to be broken down in 3 - one formula for forwards, another one for defensemen and one for goalies.

For forwards, I would like for ice time to count for something so that The Formula is able to point out underutilized, overperforming players.

I would also have the team's record be part of the equation. Some guys are stuck on crappy teams. This is where my brain starts to hurt.
 
Go with an inverse proportionality between salary and Corsi number and then multiply everything by pi.

Multiplying everything by the same thing actually ends up making no difference but at least you get pi in there.

If there is ever a 2 to carry, do not fail to carry it.

Then stick Ovechkin in as most overpaid.


:handshake:
 
Just going to use GVS (Goals Versus Salary), and I might limit my article to Leafs and Habs players.

What if NHL players were subjected to annual performance reviews?

is prolly going to be my premise.
 
Matty
Just going to use GVS (Goals Versus Salary), and I might limit my article to Leafs and Habs players.

What if NHL players were subjected to annual performance reviews?

is prolly going to be my premise.
Click to expand...

Good angle. I always used to think that players should have 1 year salaries based on their previous year's performance. You perform, you get paid.

Is the piece you are writing for a website?
 
Yah, writing it for my employer.

So I looked at Rob Vollman's spreadsheet for the last 6 seasons and I isolated the 2013/14 season. The thing with his formula is that it tends to have a lot of goalies at both ends, i.e. it seems to put a lot of weight on goalie performance. Disagreeing with that is way beyond my pay grade but it makes for a rather boring article. So I'm just getting rid of goalies.

Excluding goalies, unsigned free agents (Ville Leino) and players who have left the NHL (Rostislav Kesla), I get this:

Top 5 Overpaid in 2013/14
1. Dany Heatley (12G 16A, $7.5M cap hit)
2. David Clarkson (5G 6A, $5.25M cap hit)
3. Marian Gaborik (11G 19A, $7.5M cap hit)
4. Stephen Weiss (2G 2A, $4.9M cap hit)
5. Eric Staal (21G 40A, $8.25M cap hit)

Top 5 Underpaid in 2013/14
1. Jaden Schwartz (25G 31A, $830k cap hit)
2. Ondrej Palat (23G 26A, $580k cap hit)
3. Ryan Johansen (33G 30A, $870k cap hit)
4. Joe Pavelski (41G 38A, $4M cap hit)
5. Gabriel Landeskog (26G 39A, $925k cap hit)



Does this look reasonable? It looks pretty good to me.

BTW bacon will be happy to know that over the last 6 seasons, the player with the best GVS average is his franco-Ontarian sweetheart Claude Giroux. (His rookie contract is a big part of the reason he comes out on top.)

:boxcleanersdaddy:
 
If I include goalies, they account for 3 of the top 5 underpaid (Semyon Varlamov, Ben Bishop, Cam Talbot) and 4 of the 5 overpaid players (Cam Ward, Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne, Ondrej Pavelec).

Fok that.
 
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