The long mid-season stretch, and its general lack of motivation, is coming to an end, and gradually playoff positioning will start to dominate games. This is around the time of year when totals come into the picture for me, especially after the ASB.
To bet on a total I need three things. First, I need an over or underlay of 20 pts or more. I don't expect to beat the spread by 20 pts, but it gives me a good cushion. Then the type of game needs to be 'locked in'. If you get a completely different game of what you might expect, then the projection for the total is no longer realistic. But if the type of game is, more or less, clear, then the total projection is realistic. (it's still only a projection, though.. lol). I consider the game locked in when two independent factors both point at the same team beating the spread. I'm not betting on that side. Teams care a whole lot more about winning or losing, than about going over or under...
It is pretty common in sports betting that an approach works well one year and cools off the next. To blindly rely on past success is a quick way to lose money. Action points are a good way to measure how hot or cold a system is. For instance, I did get a win last night with an UNDER , but it beat the spread by only 2.5 action points. Last season this approach went 22-5, and the average action points were much higher. So it's still early. Once the action points start to go up I'll increase my bet size. Until then, 'experimental' or lowest bet size.
Forecast:
NY@MIN U210.5
*tequila toast*
To bet on a total I need three things. First, I need an over or underlay of 20 pts or more. I don't expect to beat the spread by 20 pts, but it gives me a good cushion. Then the type of game needs to be 'locked in'. If you get a completely different game of what you might expect, then the projection for the total is no longer realistic. But if the type of game is, more or less, clear, then the total projection is realistic. (it's still only a projection, though.. lol). I consider the game locked in when two independent factors both point at the same team beating the spread. I'm not betting on that side. Teams care a whole lot more about winning or losing, than about going over or under...
It is pretty common in sports betting that an approach works well one year and cools off the next. To blindly rely on past success is a quick way to lose money. Action points are a good way to measure how hot or cold a system is. For instance, I did get a win last night with an UNDER , but it beat the spread by only 2.5 action points. Last season this approach went 22-5, and the average action points were much higher. So it's still early. Once the action points start to go up I'll increase my bet size. Until then, 'experimental' or lowest bet size.
Forecast:
NY@MIN U210.5
*tequila toast*
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