Bread
Current Corpse
- Since
- Jan 20, 2010
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monkey dont do that!
oh 2nd half +13 (m2.5 units.)
oh 2nd half +13 (m2.5 units.)
isn't bermudian money just smashed bottle caps?
Bread, follow these guidelines and you'll never lose:
1. Don't play juice higher than -139. You may hit greater than 60%, but your bankroll will eventually get ground-down. If there's a team you really love at greater than -139, play a two-team parlay with them. Afterall, if their juice is that high and you think it deserves to be, they should be a lock right? Why not parlay them with another sure-winner and get twice the money?
2. Don't get complacent or "creative" after a big win. Stick to a winning system as if you were down to your last dollar.
3. Don't play totals. They're not profitable, you win on them by being lucky. Luck is not a handicapping tool.
4. Don't play run lines...ever. It's hard enough to win a game by one run, heavy favorites who should win still lose every day (see yesterday's Atlanta and ChiSox games). Very often games go into extra innings. The run line is the dumb line.
5. The only acceptable parlay is a two-teamer.
6. Don't bet more than one parlay per day. These are your best two teams and they should be your big show. Don't make them share the spotlight. (see "Bankroll Guidelines")
7. Don't bet more than one game in the same time slot. (the reason for this is mentioned in "Bankroll Guidelines" below)
8. Don't make more than three plays in one day. (see "Bankroll Guidelines") If you have alot of games that you "OMG REALLY LOVE", narrow it down to the three best. If you can't pick which are the best, you shouldn't be betting.
9. Don't take or fade a rookie pitcher making his first, second or third start. You don't know what you're going to get.
10. Don't go "all-in" unless you are making a lifestyle change. You may think you are ready to do it, but if it loses and you suddenly can't get action down, you will wish you could get in the time machine. There is only one permissible time to go "all -in": it's when you are on the brink of a lifestyle change that does not involve gambling and you don't care if you win or lose.
11. Don't let "touts", message board traffic, etc influence your plays. "Gambling Services" are simply people doing what you should be doing (research) except that they are usually doing it less effectively than you could do it yourself. I am always shocked by the illiterate moron write-ups that I see on service sites.
12. Don't beat yourself up over an unexplainable loss. When a big offense or stud pitcher decides to "take the day off" and ruin your play, shrug it off. It happens. The goal is for it to happen less than 40% of the time. You can't win long-term until you have mastered how to mentally deal with an unexplainable loss. How you react on the very next wager will tell you if you are a square (chaser), sharp ("oh well, next play"), or degenerate ("all-in")
13. Never violate sound bankroll management. Duh. IMO the best system is the one I devised below. I call it "Heaven's Gate"
14. Never assume that a team is better or worse than their record.
15. DON"T LET THE VEGAS / CARRIB LINE INFLUENCE YOUR OPINION OF A MATCHUP. The game takes place on the field, not in the book. "Fading steam", looking for "traps" is complete nonsense and disrespects this fine hobby.
Matching my biggest bet of day (cjhasing) n ia 2nd half under 65 20 units. no influence. all me. :(