Monday Night Bases

[djiddish98]

i got stl +1.5 -155 down 2-0 after 1

Nice bet. I'd almost be happier with beating the close like that than limping into a win with a lame bet, although I bet skittles and candy cigarettes

 

[rito]

Nice bet. I'd almost be happier with beating the close like that than limping into a win with a lame bet, although I bet skittles and candy cigarettes

meh, it was =-168/155 at pinny when i bet, it closed -164/151

 

[djiddish98]

I like this approach. Being contrarian seems to be a smart play with regards to efficient markets (I'm thinking the stock market off the top of my head). The total is most likely where it is for a reason and some smart people weren't too worried about the starting pitching.

it's also a nice way to approach basic life decisions.

Do you look at public %s at all? I tried working with those but could never really trust them.

 

[djiddish98]

I was looking at sbrodds to see and they showed -170. I assume that number is off? (can't really trust it I've learned)

 

[djiddish98]

Nice - I said "can't trust" in back to back posts. I feel like a grandpa talking about the Hoover administration.

 

[Tron]

HOU @ COL UNDER 9.5 (-125)

:

Good stuff. The X's were on this also. Cheers.

 

[rito]

Hmm, Sbrodds has a 22:12 change from +1.5 -164 to -170. Sports options doesn't have that change. thats right at game time.

 

[djiddish98]

:

Good stuff. The X's were on this also. Cheers.

Nice win - get those units!

 

[Tron]

You bring up a good point dj. I use public %'s but can they be trusted.


Durito, Mr.X.....in your opinion what is the best resource to determine where the majority of $$ is going on a game?

 

[djiddish98]

Hmm, Sbrodds has a 22:12 change from +1.5 -164 to -170. Sports options doesn't have that change. thats right at game time.

FYI - I took a closing snapshot about 5 minutes before close and had -155.92 as the no-vig. That thing must have driven up really late.

 

[rito]

You bring up a good point dj. I use public %'s but can they be trusted.


Durito, Mr.X.....in your opinion what is the best resource to determine where the majority of $$ is going on a game?

I have no idea, it's of no interest to me.

edit: just watch where the line moves.

 

[djiddish98]

Do you use sportsinsights? That seems like the best estimate of public perception. I don't have a subscription, but I'd be interested in seeing their parlay numbers.

There were times when I used this website (sponsoring SI?)

http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

and just altered the gametype number at the end of the url IE:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=3&v_nss=955&v_date=6/7/2010&gtype=4
http://www.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=3&v_nss=955&v_date=6/7/2010&gtype=6

This was for basketball though.

 

[Tron]

I have no idea, it's of no interest to me.

edit: just watch where the line moves.

Ok. I know you're being patient with me and I appreciate it. I'm still learning and have a long way to go.

 

[MrX]

You bring up a good point dj. I use public %'s but can they be trusted.


Durito, Mr.X.....in your opinion what is the best resource to determine where the majority of $$ is going on a game?

I also have no idea.

 

[djiddish98]

Here's the thing as well - if the books thought that making this info available would hurt them in any way, they wouldn't do it, unless SI gives them some ridiculous kickback that overcompensates for any loss that this inside info would generate. They could have easily realized that this is just more obfuscation.

Still, you can take a contrarian approach without knowing public percentages.

 

[Tron]

Absolutely.

Knowing where the money is going is not a dominating factor in a contrarian approach.

 

[Polaroid]

if the books thought that making this info available would hurt them in any way, they wouldn't do it

I think that makes the most sense and I don't think there are any ridiculous kickbacks in play.

 

[djiddish98]

I don't think I've ever hit a +120 total before (on 20 cent spreads), or even bet one. Yet this game is done in the 6th.

I'll add that to the short list of bizarre bets supported by line movement. Did anyone get in on that Over 14.5 runs on the last game of that diamondbacks / cubs series?