Hooligans Sportsbook

Monday Night Bases

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A tangential question - what's a good book to judge for MLB totals besides pinnacle? I'm currently using matchbook simply because I'm also using them for ml and rl but their totals markets seem thin and copied.

Or is mb also good for using as a market estimate for totals?

5dimes looks ok - ten cent spread
 
Thanks Daft for your thoughts.

Waiting for bullpens to blow this under.

DO is up right now with runners on first and second with no outs. He's also on my fantasy team - at what point do you stop rooting for fantasy and starting cheering for your bet? This is possibly even more pathetic than the "fantasy vs. home team" debate, but I've been in this quandry a lot.
 
I bet exclusively at bodog waiting for lines that disagree with what pinnacle has - I imagine this is classic steam chasing.

Pinnacle jumped up to -113 / +102 (sbr odds shows it closed at -116 / +105) on the over 8.5; I converted that to the total of 9 that bodog was showing using the half point calculator, and it told me that bodog's +120 (on the over 9) was pretty good odds.

I like to go with what the market is telling me, even though I feel like it leads me astray most of the time.
 
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Yeah - as I mentioned when I first joined, I created a basketball sim that was working off of adjusted off / def efficiencies (adjusted using excel's solver) and running off of basketballvalue.com's data set. I would run 10 trials of 1,000 samples based on each team's adj off / def efficiency, avg possessions and a weighted standard deviation to create a decent probability function of what might happen, and then compare the outcome of my samples to the spread.

Unfortunately, I didn't really understand how gambling markets worked. I assumed that "vegas" was skewing the numbers to collect on an ignorant public (not a bad theory when you see people citing trends and other information that gambling sites are giving to you FOR FREE as a method for making a bet). However, I came to the realization that any edge my model was telling me was probably already baked into the market (I wasn't betting openers) and that the issue was with my model, not the line. It went on a nice run to get my hopes up, fizzled for a bit, and then I quickly quit.

I was also keeping a simple "record" of wins and losses, ignoring any sort of line prediction value or purchase price, mistake number two.

I could go back with what (I think) I know today and try again, but it was kind of a pain with the daily upkeep.

Also, if anyone wants the "software" (again, all done in excel), I'd be happy to release it.
 
I'd like to have more dialogue about your second paragraph. I don't use models (I'm honestly not smart enough nor does my real profession allow me the time to create them) but most of my "handicaping" is based on using "square" numbers that are readily available to the public ( as you mentioned) and making contrarian picks based on the square numbers/trends.
 
I'm of the belief that the books aren't in the charity business, so any information on trends that I find (like on bodogs website) are only there to lead me astray.

However if it works for you then more power to you. Didn't mean to offend if I did

edit: sorry failed at reading comprehension on your post the first time around (on the phone) - are you taking the trends and flipping them around? (as you said, contrarian approach)
 
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djiddish98
I'm of the belief that the books aren't in the charity business, so any information on trends that I find (like on bodogs website) are only there to lead me astray.

However if it works for you then more power to you. Didn't mean to offend if I did
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No you misunderstood my post.

I look at what information is made readily available to the public and utilize that information to make contrarian picks.

A quick example, the combined ERA's of the two starters in the game is 9.75 yet the line is set @ 8. If the public is hammering the OVER in this situation I love the UNDER.

Remember, this is a quick example.
 
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