Matty's 2014/15 NBA Experiment

[bacon]

Basketball is so easy to fix because of the foul shots. That year Miami won and DWade was getting all those BS fouls, perfect example. Sometimes people have to set themselves up to fail in order to learn, and I hope you learn quickly.

 

[Matty]

My "model" seems to be spitting out too many games. I adjusted for injuries and all.

Not sure what's going on. Seems like it would be simpler to model than other sports since the same guys are on for most of the game.

I dunno man.

 

[MrMonkey]

GL Matty but kinda like Bacon said these players can't be trusted! One night they show up, another they don't! Probably need inside info. to know what kind of performance you going to get night-to-night!

Plus being different from bases, hockey, or foots, in that with the NBA a few points differential at the end of the game can happen so easily without really affecting the true winner of the game! And it has nothing to do with the players! Long term I would bet like Tron in going where the money ain't going if you could find those true numbers? I know, I'm cynical!

 

[IAG]

Don't quit Matty. At least not until "we're" in the plus. I believe.

 

[Matty]

Ima give it 250 picks.

 

[betplom]

Ima give it 250 picks.

Your gonna put IAG in the poorhouse.

She's tailing all your plays.

 

[bacon]

He's a solid hockey capper. Prediction is the juice crushes him here.

 

[mrquincy]

You should try to pick some tie parlays in NHL with me Matty. I go for the nights where there are a shitload of games... Pick 4 games and pray for O/T.

Good luck with your NBA picks...

 

[Matty]

Yeh that's not a bad lottery ticket MrQ.

I'll stick to Science though.

 

[mrquincy]

I have found that it is at least a break even proposition Matty. If you hit a couple 3 game tie parlays in the year, it pretty much pays for itself.

 

[Matty]

Hmm hmm.

Google says:

Roughly 22.5 percent (sometimes a bit higher and lower, and in 2009-10 it was 27.9 percent) of NHL games go to overtime.

You'd need +345 on average to make it a break-even proposition @ 22.5%.

At 27.9%, you only need to play +259 or better.

 

[mrquincy]

I did not do any math, but I did find i hit at least two - 3 game tie parlays each season for the last few seasons. This is the first time I hit all 4.

 

[Matty]

Hmm hmm.

 

[bacon]

Quincy with the 7400% ROI on his proposition last night

 

[Matty]

For 10/29

Indiana -6.5 -105
Boston +3.5 -108
Washington +4 -105
New York +4 -107
Detroit +7 -105


with more coming tomorrow

Adding:

Milwaukee +8.5 -108
Minnesota +8 -105
Utah +3.5 -105
LA Lakers +12.5 -102
Sacramento +4 -101

bacon I've got ONE fave in there, shut up

4-6 -2.25u

YTD 5-8 -3.34u

 

[Matty]

Oct. 30

Washington -4.5 -103
New York +12.5 -105
Detroit +6 -105
Utah +10.5 -105
Oklahoma City +12 -101 (I know Durant and a bunch more are out - this is still a play)

 

[kato]

love the utah & okc picks, matty

 

[roguejuror]

kato can you believe i wasted a st yolandi invoke on the royals last night