So I've been pondering how to exploit live betting and props that don't require game completion and had a completely untested idea.
Before live MLB game starts make two bets:
bet away team ml (+ odds)
bet home team will score first prop
There are some nice disconnects here - away team ml is typically longer odds but they get to bat first, so the % chance of home team scoring first is (always?) lower than their ml odds.
If your home team first run prop hits then just ride out your away ml - perhaps you end up hitting both!
If home team first run prop doesn't hit chances are you could buy their ml in live betting for +odds. You'll probably still end up with a small net loss but perhaps in the long run this could end up profitable (all dependent on your odds)
This is all theoretical at this point and comes off as weird hedging for pennies, but I do think a Rec book is leaving themselves exposed somehow by offering props that have outcomes mid game + live betting
Thoughts?
