Hooligans Sportsbook

Live betting??

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Bouncing a lot of bets out there on LiveBetting. Pretty fun and it seems like some nice opportunities to be had.

Some thoughts:

Pinnacle's dynamic lines are not good for this.
Bodog is very slow with presenting their lines, which is nice, because any soft pinnacle line out there early gets chewed up and spit out pretty quickly.
Bodog is also slow with pulling their lines - I could still make a bet with ESPN on my iphone showing a walk already in the next inning

I tried doing this with matchbook earlier on, but the liquidity just isn't there.
 
Thanks for the heads up durito

Baseball seems a little more cut and dry than their football offering, so hopefully I won't get burned. I bet such low amounts that I don't think it would be worth teh hassle, although I'll bear in mind not to use my super advanced "ESPN IPHONE" feed.

I was finding some nice edges all night by comparing to pinnacle, although I'm not sure how realistic these are - for example, Dodgers -1000 has an edge at one point (I think it was -2295 / +1100 or something at pinnacle), but the probability graphs never show a justification for such a high probability

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA201006220.shtml

Can we basically "toss out" these live bets or is Pinnacle taking additional factors into count (such as lineup for the upcoming inning, which this baseball-reference graph doesn't seem to address)
 
djiddish98
Can we basically "toss out" these live bets or is Pinnacle taking additional factors into count (such as lineup for the upcoming inning, which this baseball-reference graph doesn't seem to address)
Click to expand...

I use Fangraphs since they have prettier graphs and the game graph looked similar (although inverted) to yours.

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2010-06-22&team=Angels&dh=0&season=2010

You'll note that both graphs start out at 50/50, they do that each time irrelevant of the opening moneyline (i.e. inferred probability) so any situation you get in any game is based on two identical teams playing against each other on what is basically a neutral field.

As to what actual live betting takes into account the book can factor in the strength of squad, bullpen strength etc. etc. but there are so many factors to consider (and they've got to get the lines up/down pretty quick) that I'm sure the actual lines are an educated bet and shaded in favor of where their client base generally likes to bet - like of you've got the Yankees 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th, the true odds of -1000 to win might get moved to -1300 since your average Joe thinks the Yankees are never going to lose that one, right?
 
I would think that the books simply figure out the value of walks, stolen bases, hits, runs, and outs in each inning and add or subtract from the full game's fair value after every event. I honestly haven't studied it in any real depth though.
 
Polaroid
I use Fangraphs since they have prettier graphs and the game graph looked similar (although inverted) to yours.

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2010-06-22&team=Angels&dh=0&season=2010

You'll note that both graphs start out at 50/50, they do that each time irrelevant of the opening moneyline (i.e. inferred probability) so any situation you get in any game is based on two identical teams playing against each other on what is basically a neutral field.

As to what actual live betting takes into account the book can factor in the strength of squad, bullpen strength etc. etc. but there are so many factors to consider (and they've got to get the lines up/down pretty quick) that I'm sure the actual lines are an educated bet and shaded in favor of where their client base generally likes to bet - like of you've got the Yankees 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th, the true odds of -1000 to win might get moved to -1300 since your average Joe thinks the Yankees are never going to lose that one, right?
Click to expand...

Yeah, I also took a look at fangraphs, but I couldn't tell the exact probability on their graph - is there some overlay that my browser isn't picking up?

The certainly are prettier.

Also, thanks for the heads up on starting out as two equal teams. That probably explains the difference.
 
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MonkeyF0cker
I would think that the books simply figure out the value of walks, stolen bases, hits, runs, and outs in each inning and add or subtract from the full game's fair value after every event. I honestly haven't studied it in any real depth though.
Click to expand...

Bodog and Pinnacle offer wagering only between innings (unlike the fangraphs / baseball reference charts, which show probability after each event). I think their two main variables are current score / total number of outs a team has left.

Last night, I bought Arizona +1.5 at -175 based on an edge per Pinnacle (this was before the bottom of the seventh with AZ due up). However, you have Dan Haren pitching all game up to this point, and I doubt AZs bullpen is as good as even a tired Dan Haren (just a guess). Plus Mariano sitting there in the bottom of the 9th on the other side.

And of course, NYY put up 6 runs in the top of the 8th, blowing my under and RL pick.

I'm going to think about some approaches
 
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djiddish98
Bodog and Pinnacle offer wagering only between innings (unlike the fangraphs / baseball reference charts, which show probability after each event). I think their two main variables are current score / total number of outs a team has left.

Last night, I bought Arizona +1.5 at -175 based on an edge per Pinnacle (this was before the bottom of the seventh with AZ due up). However, you have Dan Haren pitching all game up to this point, and I doubt AZs bullpen is as good as even a tired Dan Haren (just a guess). Plus Mariano sitting there in the bottom of the 9th on the other side.

And of course, NYY put up 6 runs in the top of the 8th, blowing my under and RL pick.
Click to expand...

Ahh. Ok. I figured they had something along the lines of Matchy and/or Vegas books.
 
Polaroid
As to what actual live betting takes into account the book can factor in the strength of squad, bullpen strength etc. etc. but there are so many factors to consider (and they've got to get the lines up/down pretty quick) that I'm sure the actual lines are an educated bet and shaded in favor of where their client base generally likes to bet - like of you've got the Yankees 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th, the true odds of -1000 to win might get moved to -1300 since your average Joe thinks the Yankees are never going to lose that one, right?
Click to expand...

I guess the flip side of this is that bodog wants to take bets. If they juice the lines up too much, their client base might get scared off by risking that much, while the other side of the bet becomes attractive due to the potential payoff. People are scared enough to bet Yankee MLs before the game starts (take the RL instead)
 
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